Corinne McCabe , Broker

Are you confused by the HOV lanes? Wondering how you are going to make it around the city over the next month? Wondering if it will ever warm up? We wish we could help. But if the latest information on Toronto real estate is something you need, well, we’re the company for you. Every week we pore through the data and talk to our managers and agents on the street to get you the latest information…just like this;

After hitting nearly 500 new freehold listings in early May, things have slowed down as we enter the traditional Summer market. Last week we dropped to just over 300 new listings. It seems that buyers are still out in full force however as sales increased by 5% last week. We found it interesting that sales at or above the list price tapered down to 53.8%, one of the lowest numbers this year. We expect that sales may underperform during the month of July thanks to the Pan Am Games but demand will not slow down. This should make the fall market exceptionally busy.

Like the freehold sector, new condo listings backed off by 8.9% last week and we saw a 16% reduction in the number of units sold. While the numbers don’t show it, we believe the condo market remains strong as the indicator that we follow, the number of suites that sell at or above asking price, was a very healthy 25.5%. The mid-market condo ($700k to $1.5m) in the central core was one of the hotter segments of the market followed by the entry level condo ($200k to $400k) in both the east and west cores.

Noted business professor Aaron Levenstein once quipped that ‘statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital’. As big fans of statistics (and bikinis) we couldn’t agree more that’s why, every now and then, we like to look back a year and do a little market comparison to see if anything has changed. This week we “reveal” our findings.

It’s funny how everyone seems to complain about the lack of listings. The truth of the matter is that last year at this time there were nearly half as many freehold listings available on the market.  Sales continue to be strong year over year although comparatively the percentage of sales to listings last week was 51.7% vs 72.1% for the same week last year. The numbers indicate that demand may have slipped until you also consider the fact that both weeks recorded the same percentage of deals happening at or above the list price (59%).

The condominium sector is more interesting. Available new listings are up by about 48% from the same week one year ago while sales are up by nearly 65%.  Clearly the condominium sector has beaten all expectations. Where a year ago 20% of sales were trading at or above the list price, last week that number was 28%. Our research indicates that most of this is a result of first time buyers choosing condos over homes, due, in part, to affordability as well as lifestyle choices. 

Two interesting news items piqued our interest last week. The first was that the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that  housing markets in Calgary and Edmonton had rebounded nicely, suggesting that uncertainty about the future of Alberta’s Oil industry may be easing. The second was that CMHC are taking steps to slow the market by hiking mortgage default insurance premiums for those buying with less than 10% down payment. These two events, while not related, speak to the continued health of Canada’s real estate market.

Freehold listings grew by a marginal 3% last week while sales backed off by 6%. The separation of more listings and fewer sales is in keeping with historic patterns as we transition from a hot spring market to a more subdued summer market. It also means that as demand cools we see fewer multiple offers. Considering that just a month ago over 72% of homes traded across Toronto’s core were sold in multiples we are now at a more reasonable 60% level.  The big surprise last week was the central core’s high end market where we saw 18 sales over $3m compared to 3 sales two weeks ago.

As for the condo market all we can say is that you’d better keep the playbook close because it’s hard to keep up. Following a jump of almost 11% in condo listings a few weeks ago, last week listings fell by almost 10% yet unit sales has remained virtually unchanged at 264 units. The number of suites selling at or above the list price is down to 22.3% compared to 24% a week earlier. This is the number we keep a keen eye on as it is a true indicator on the health of the condo market.

Hard to believe we are half way through 2015 already. If that thought is depressing, don’t forget that the best is yet to come. Sunshine and heat waves are in our future and while still sizzling, there are signs that Toronto’s real estate market has backed off from the frantic pace that was the Spring market. That should come as some relief to those sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to purchase a new home.

The freehold market has reversed its month long trend by recording nearly 11% fewer listings last week. Sales followed suit registering almost 15% fewer transactions and the percentage of homes selling at or above the list price was a more reasonable 67.7% compared to 72% a month ago. Clearly the effect of less product is not causing increased bidding wars. Sales of freehold homes continues to be robust but there is less urgency in the market. The hotspots last week were the east and west cores of the city where nearly 80% of entry level homes ($400K-$700K) sold in multiple offers.

Last week the condo sector increased new listings by nearly 11%, one of its largest increases this year. Sales however backed off by a marginal 6%. The end result of more listings and fewer sales meant that the number of suites selling in multiple offers also backed off to 24%. This is still a solid number and a strong indicator that the condo market is extremely healthy. This week the hotspot has shifted west where nearly half of condos sold in the west core sold in multiple offers.

Just when you think you have a handle on the market, something changes and you are forced to re-evaluate. Eventually there comes a point when you just have to strap yourself in and recognize that it’s next to impossible to predict what’s going on in Toronto’s real estate market. As the old saying goes….nothing is as constant as change.

Case in point, the number of new freehold listings. Last week new listings were WAY up, this week they’re down by 3%. In complete contradiction to that pattern, sales are WAY up by over 88% from a week ago. And while the percentage of homes selling in multiple offers was off last week (54.3%), it seems like we are returning to more aggressive territory with almost 70% of homes selling at or above the list price. The big surprise of the week has to be the high end market, homes listed above $3M, where we had a near record 9 sales in the week.

Similar to the freehold market, the number of new condo listings has been going up and down like soccer fans doing the wave. This week listings are back down by 3.4%, but sales have jumped by an astonishing 41% from the previous week. While not in record territory, nearly 28% of suites sold at or above the list price. The hottest area this week is the $400K-$700K sector in the central core where 31% of the condos sold at or above the list price.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto and Niagara-on-the-Lake since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 230 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.