Corinne McCabe , Broker

There are two simple truths that we learned last week; Kanye West is NOT a Canadian and Toronto’s real estate market turned in another gold medal performance. Sure, things are slowing down a bit but that’s more a seasonal tendency. What catches our eye is the fact that while listings are way down in both the freehold and condo sectors, sales are only down a little. Clearly demand is still raging downtown but supply continues to be the major issue.

Nowhere is the supply and demand conundrum more evident than in the freehold sector where supply is down 19% from the week earlier and sales backed off by 6.7%. While that 12.3% spread is significant, we also noticed that fewer homes were selling in multiple offers. Our agents are reporting less competition at the offer table which leads us to conclude that many buyers are taking a temporary hiatus from the market. This is especially evident in the $1.5M+ market across the downtown core where sales have backed off over 42% from a week earlier.

The condo sector is exhibiting the same traits as the freehold sector with a drop of 9.4% in available listings compared to the previous week. We found it interesting to note that while the overall decline in the number of sales was 3.3%, that decline came from the east and west core of the city. In the central core there was actually a 20% increase in sales volume from the previous week primarily in the $400k-$700k price range.

A few weeks ago we determined that the Pan Am Games would contribute to lower listings and lower sales numbers because many people were planning on escaping the city. Hey, we were right….until everyone realized that the traffic just wasn’t that bad. It appears that now is as good a time as any to sell a home. So, if you are hiding out in parts unknown you might be missing out on that dream home.

The freehold sector had one of the single highest week over week changes with a noticeable 25.6% increase in new listings and a similarly grandiose 54.5% increase in sales last week. With that increase came slightly more demand as transactions at or above the list price edged up 2.5% from the previous week to stand at 54.5%. What stands out the most when we reviewed last week’s data was the amount of movement in the entry level home ($400k to $700k) across the city’s core where listings increased by 37%. While the single detached Toronto home has topped the million dollar mark, there is plenty of room for those on a more modest budget.

The condo sector has been fairly tame for the past few weeks. New listings have inched down 3% from a few weeks ago while sales have essentially remained unchanged. Higher end condo sales have taken a hiatus having registered a complete shut out on any condo above $1.5m. That falls in line with a recent article by Canadian Real Estate Magazine that reports that “demand for condos is at an all-time high as millennials and first-time buyers look to affordably enter the market while maintaining a property with some kind of appreciation value”. 

Last week’s market activity reads like a good news/bad news story. It’s kind of like Toronto traffic. Thanks to the Pan Am Games there is very little road construction, but the bad news is there’s one less lane to drive in. For those of us who have a short commute there’s always the bike but if a quick get-a-way to the cottage is needed we suggest you make your escape extra early.

It’s easy to see the freehold sector easing into the Summer market. Listings remained unchanged over the previous week, running at 308 new listings in the central, east and west core but sales have trailed off by 56.3% over the same period. The biggest decline comes from the higher end central core where sales of homes over $1.5M were cut in half from the previous week (to 17 units). There is some good news however. Homes selling at or above the list price increased by 3% last week, to 56.3%. We believe that buyers are still very active in the market place but are taking a bit more time to make their decision.

In the condo sector listings have increased 8.9% since the week prior but have remained consistent over the last month at (767 listings in the downtown core). Sales are also down by a marginal 4.9% which only represents about 10 sales over the week. It is worth reporting that the key indicator of the condo market health has to be the percentage of suites selling at or above the list price. Last week that percentage was at a very encouraging 24.5% level.