Corinne McCabe , Broker

Is it the last hooray or the last hurrah?  Either way, we're entering that phase now...

After a brief dip a few weeks ago, the number of new listings in both the freehold and condo sectors jumped last week. While this increase is still much lower than historical averages it forces the question…what gives? The simplest answer is that we are witnessing the last hooray before the listing taps start to close over the winter holidays.

While we recorded a healthy 41.6% increase in available listings in the freehold sector it is interesting to note that there are 27% fewer listings on the market compared to the same week one year ago. Having fewer listings hasn’t cooled the buying side. In fact, sales are greater than what were recorded in 2014 and the number of sales at or above the list price is slightly higher than the past year (49% compared to 45%). Of notable interest is the significant increase of listings in the ultra-high end market ($3M+) which climbed from 23 to 44 available listings last week in the central core bringing the total number of listings in this price category to 159.

At this point in the year, it’s fair to say that the condominium sector is the favourite child of Toronto’s real estate market. Compared to last year there are only 20 more condos available for sale across all price points but it is the sales numbers that truly astound. Last year at this time we recorded just 93 sales compared to the 205 sales that happened across Toronto’s core neighbourhoods last week. Of those sales, 20.5% happened at or above the list price. Wow!

With listings in both the freehold and condo sectors slowing down as we near the end of the month, the debate rages on. Should buyers wait until the New Year to purchase a new home or jump into the market now? There are different points of view on this topic. If you wait there will be more choice BUT you will be competing with all the other buyers who are also waiting for the spring market. More buyers bidding on the same home will drive prices higher. If you buy now there is less choice but fewer buyers. Naturally, life is less complicated as a seller. 

As expected, new freehold listings were down last week.  Our target prediction was outshot as we saw listings cut in half in the downtown core.  The number of recorded sales however was only down 26.6% and we still saw a high level (53.8%) of those sales happening at or above the list price. While the high-end home seems the most affected by the slowing market there were segments that fared very well. They included the $700k to $1.5m price range in the central core and the $400k to $700k price range in both the east and west cores.

The condo sector is experiencing similar traits as the freehold sector however not nearly as obvious. Listings have backed off by 46% however sales only dipped by 20%. Of those sales, 16.7% happened at or above the list price. Clearly the condo sector has held its own throughout 2015 and with fewer new condo completions on the horizon for 2016 as well as continued strength in the freehold sector, we believe that this segment of Toronto’s real estate market will remain strong going into 2016.

With no distractions to stand in our way for at least the next month we knew that we would see a return to a more traditional fall market. Things got off on the right foot two weeks ago and the steady pace of more listings and sales has continued just as we predicted. With two months left in 2015 there is still plenty of transactions on the horizon and our research shows there are plenty of buyers waiting for the perfect home.

Freehold listings are up for the third week in a row reaching just shy of 400 units in the downtown core.  The single biggest growth segment being in the $1.5M- $3M price range in the central core. Overall, this represents just 4.5% fewer listings than the same week one year ago. While sales are also trending 8.7% higher than the previous week they aren’t as high as they were last year (200 compared to 229). Homes trading at or above the list price is at a very respectable 55%, well within the range we have seen for a strong fall market.

Following three straight weeks of falling resale condominium listings last week we witnessed a 14.4% spike in available units. The number of sales remained unchanged from the previous week (216) and the percentage of units sold at or above the list price was a very healthy 23.1%. The hot spot of the week was the $400k-$700k segment in the east core where over half the units sold at or above the list price. Overall, sales are up 13.1% more than a year ago.