Corinne McCabe , Broker

Dear Vancouver, we are wondering if what is going on with our market is the same thing you went through last year?  You see, our listings continue to go up and sales have dropped off substantially. Yet the Toronto Real Estate Board just released the mid-May statistics and shared that in the first two weeks of May prices have gone up over 17% compared to the same time-frame last year.  And you might want to sit down for this next stat, because the leader of the pack was none other than condominium apartments which increased over 28% in value over the same period last May. Now we should also point out that the average price of a detached home in the 416 has actually declined slightly from the end of April going down in value 1.8%. Condominium apartments did increase in value over the end of April, but to be honest at an increase of .2% it is basically a rounding error.

We were happy to see that the listings in the Freehold market declined last week over the previous week.  Don’t get us wrong we love to see new listings but last week happened to be the week before the last of the Spring market long weekends and well, listings are supposed to go down before a long weekend. The 46% decline in listings last week to 266 from 496 the previous week is a similar proportionate drop to those we witnessed around earlier spring holidays. It was also very interesting to note that sale numbers crept up slightly moving up 3% to 204 from 188 the previous week.  The first increase in sale numbers in three weeks. We continue to see a declining number of sales that are recorded above their listed price and are hearing anecdotally that many of those sales that did go over their list price did so with only a single offer and clearly some good negotiating.

The condominium market also saw a decline in new listings last week down 25% to 339 over the previous week which saw 451 new listings come to market.  There was also a slight uptick in condo sales last week up 3% over the previous week. The condominium market continues to witness the decline in units selling for more than the advertised price with a meager 57% of all sales going above their listed price.

In the eighties the world was introduced to a new toy known as the Rubik’s Cube.  There ensued a massive uptake of the toy amongst the general population despite the fact that the only way most of us could actually solve the puzzle was to take the stickers off and put them back on so it appeared as though we had completed the Cube. Anytime something like the Rubik’s Cube comes around the question of Fad vs. Trend begins to be talked about.  That same question has begun to be discussed about the Toronto real estate market and it is a question that we will only answer with time. The Rubik’s cube has become the bestselling puzzle of all time.  I think we can declare that one a trend. As we head into the last holiday weekend of the spring season we will watch carefully to see how the market reacts when everyone is back to work on Tuesday. Have we witnessed a fad in our market or are we looking at the beginning of a trend?

The freehold market continued to see increases in inventory and declines in sales for the third straight week.  New listings increased 9% over the previous week from 454 to 496.  It is important to note when looking at those numbers that we have seen a marked increase in re-lists, those properties that were priced for a bidding war that did not come to be and have been put back on the market at a higher price.  It has been reported that as many as 20% of new listings are actually re-lists from properties that did not sell the previous week.  The drop in sales was again the exact opposite of new listings with sales dropping 10% over the previous week. The largest drop in sales was reported in the west end though it is interesting to note that 85% of all west end sales were above their list price compared to an average of 72% for the rest of our study area.

In the condo market we believe we are seeing a trend as the percentage of listings that sold above their advertised price again declined with 66% of all listings selling above their listed price.  It is important to note that it appears the days of huge offer premiums above the list price for condos are likely over. While many sales are still achieving a mark above the list price the percentage above list price continues to decline.  Condos saw a 5% increase in listings but for the first time in four weeks saw a decline in sales down 9% over the previous week.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

As we settled into our sales meetings this week the topic of the day was definitely what was happening to the market and if the recent government changes have had the desired effect in increasing the affordability of housing in the city.  Much of our conversation centered around the differences between the massive downturn in the market in 1989 versus the brief pause in the market we experienced in 2008. While admittedly none of us actually own a crystal ball, the general consensus was that these past few weeks will likely be a pause in the market and not a large correction as some Sellers are fearing and most Buyers are hoping for.  What we may be seeing as a result of this pause is a move towards more realistic pricing and less of setting a low asking price and letting the market show us the true value. All the more reason to make sure you hire a Realtor that knows how to properly price and market a property.

The freehold market saw an increase in new listings of 15% up to 454 from 394 the previous week.  It is normal at this time of year to see an increase in listings as the Spring market hits its stride and this increase seems far too low to indicate a flood of listings to the market by fearful home owners who think we are facing a serious price correction. In an exact opposite trend there was a 15% drop in the number of sales to 196 from the 232 over the previous week. This is a trend we will follow carefully as we are expecting a rebound in sales numbers over the coming weeks. While pre-emptive offers continue to disappear from the landscape it is interesting to observe that 73% of all homes still sold above their asking price.

The condo market continues to separate itself from the freehold market with a week that saw both new listings and sales increase over the previous week.  New condo listings increased 6% and sales kept very close track increasing 5% over the previous week. Condos also continue to sell above their list price with 75% of all sales happening above the advertised price.

As Spring comes upon us and the trees and flowers begin to bloom, we Realtors often have to remember to stop and smell the roses lest we wake up one day to find ourselves in the dog days of summer.  Unfortunately, given the frenetic pace of a usual spring market many Realtors miss the awaking of spring entirely, instead focusing on helping their clients to buy or sell the home of their dreams.  Even after the announcements from the provincial government of changes to the industry, the market seemed to continue down its usual path through a freshly blooming garden.  So, weren’t we all a bit surprised when this week the entire city took a deep breath and decided to stop and smell the roses.  There is much talk of buyers waiting to see how things shake out and nervous sellers wondering if they have missed the top of the market. With continued low interest rates, steady immigration to the city and provincial legislation aimed at promoting upward instead of outward growth we are confident that the market will continue its positive trajectory throughout the spring.

The Freehold market saw a steady supply of new listings last week.  Though down slightly from the previous week this is likely a result of the rush of listings after the Easter and Passover breaks.  Sales also rebounded nicely in response to the increased inventory of new listings with 232 freehold properties changing hands.  There was also a slight increase in listings selling over the advertised price with a more typical 78% of all sales going above the asking price.

The condo market also saw a consistent number of new listings when compared to the previous week settling in at an even 400 new listings last week. Sale numbers were up slightly from 193 to 201 last week and the number of sales above the advertised price were back at a more typical 75% of condo sales.