Corinne McCabe , Broker

Are we all tired of reading and listening to what the media has to say about the housing market in Toronto? There wasn't a week that went by that some so called expert didn't write their views about the market. For sure market conditions have changed and we are all adjusting, so why don't they give it a rest. The last major housing correction followed a global economic crisis in 2008. The conditions aren't there this time for a major market meltdown. The Toronto market still needs time to absorb how the buyers and sellers are going to react to the policy changes.

The Toronto Real Estate Board's midmonth numbers for July show sales down 39.3% year over year in the first half of July. With sales down and new listings slightly up {6.5%) the market was better supplied compared to last year. This gave us a more moderate 7.4% annual growth rate for the average selling price, which is $776,036 for the City of Toronto.

Despite the recent dip in GTA home sales the condo market is continuing to gain popularity with home buyers. First time buyers who want to live in the city have turned their attention in increasing numbers to less expensive forms of housing. The average selling price for condominium apartments increased 28.1% compared to 2016. The average price for a condo in the City of Toronto is $566,513, compared to $442,834 in 2016.

House prices go up, house prices go down. Whatever happens the rest of the year, Toronto housing is probably a safe bet. Toronto is a very attractive destination!

The traffic has slowed down and you can tell most people have ventured out of town for their summer holidays. The weather has finally warmed up and everyone is taking advantage of the great outdoors. Open house attendance has dropped off and property showings have slowed down. In real estate language, we call this "The Summer Market".

It's easy to see the freehold sector easing into the summer market. Listings remained unchanged except for a slight increase in the 3 million plus range. There is still some good news. Homes selling in the $700 to $1.5m range, almost half of them sold over asking!

In the condo sector the number of new listings has not increased but a surprising number of condos (35) are available in the $300-400 range and more than 50% have sold over the asking price. Good news for the first time buyers with a small budget.

The Bank of Canada interest rate hike last week could prolong the slowdown of the Toronto housing market, but economist Benjamin Tal said it is not expected to last long term. "What led to the slowdown in Vancouver was really more domestic buyers waiting to see what the foreign buyers tax will do."

While Toronto could follow a similar path to the Vancouver market that saw a significant decline, there are other factors now at play, Tal said.

"We also see interest rates going up and the regulators are talking about introducing more measures to slow down the market" he said. "That's why it's possible the slowdown in Toronto will be more durable than the slowdown in Vancouver." 

If you are working the downtown condo market or involved in the ridiculously heated rental market you might wonder what all the talk is about a declining real estate market.  However, if you are working the uptown detached market you might be trying to focus your inner Stuart Smalley by slowly repeating “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough and gosh darn it people want to buy my listings”. Buyers who are looking at the entry level market, which these days means small condos, are in tough and often competing for a space to call home.  The Buyers that had been chomping at the bit and competing for the large detached homes seem to have completely forgotten that they ever wanted to buy anything at all.

The freehold market has continued its slow march to the summer months with a decline in sales of nearly 45% to only 64 sales this past week compared to 113 the week before. And while we still here the odd story of multiple offers, the number of homes selling above their listed price has dropped to only 20%.  Listings last week increased substantially over the week before with an increase of almost 50%. Most of the increase in new listings came in the east and west areas while the central core remained fairly consistent over the previous week.

The condo market has also settled into the summer cycle with an increase in new listings and a decline in sales over the previous week. Maybe the most interesting aspect of the condo market is the difference between the entry level condo and the high end condo market. If you are looking to get into the starter market in condos be prepared for continued stiff competition.  More than 50% of the condos listed under $700,000 sold above their advertised price which is a trend we have been watching closely for several weeks.  It was reported that an aggressively priced condo in the central core recently garnered the attention of 40 offers.  Lucky for the 39 bidders that lost that there are a whole lot more condos coming to market this summer for them to bid on. Not so lucky perhaps are sellers of high end condos who have seen a marked decrease in sales activity.