Corinne McCabe , Broker

This past week we in the industry seem to be of two minds.  It seems all the Realtors are holding the same half full glass of water and we are debating the age old question of is the glass half full or is it really half empty. Some Realtors are trying to hold offer dates and others are trying to list where they think a property’s market value lies.  Some are still thinking about the market softening after the April ‘peak’ and others are looking for a new peak this Fall. After watching the steady increase in freehold properties being sold above their listed price this last week we are definitely leaning towards the half glass full philosophy. One thing everyone does seem to agree on is that there is a bit of a lack of quality listings coming to the market.

In the freehold market new listings tailed off a bit last week with 259 new listings coming to market compared to 306 in the previous week. The percentage of freehold properties selling above their listed price increased from 40% to 49%. The hottest product was the $700,000-1,500,000 price range in the east end where 66% of properties sold above their advertised price.  The same category in the west end showed 50% of listings sell above their advertised price and in the central core the number becomes a more modest 38%.

In the condo market new listings have seem to hit a stable number with 314 new listings last week compared to the 337 the week before. The hottest segment of the condo market is also in the $700,000-1,500,000 but overall there was a decline in the number of condos that sold above their advertised price.  Last week saw an easing off of condos that sold above their listed price coming down 6% from the 40% of properties the previous week. With 34% of all condos last week selling above their advertised price the condo market seems to be settling into a nice groove for the Fall market.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

It was with some sadness that we heard the news this week of the death of Wiarton Willy, the lovable groundhog that has predicted with less than perfect results whether we would be free of the grip of winter or due for a prolonged cold spell. And, as we thought fondly of Willy we were reminded of one of our favourite non-real estate movies starring Bill Murray – Groundhog Day. If Bill Murray was a Realtor® he would be living a version of Groundhog Day today. Waking up this morning and looking at the trend in sales he might think he was back in March.  Listings and sales are up in condos and the freehold market and more importantly the percentage of properties selling above their list price reached 40% in both the condo and freehold markets.  While 40% of sales above list may still be far from the Spring days of 80-90% of deals selling above their advertised price it is certainly an interesting trend that we will be watching carefully.

In the freehold market new listings jumped 30% to 306 from 237 the previous week. Several of those new listings are actually re-lists of properties that were previously listed in the Spring market but it is important to note that the market has not been flooded by listings that did not sell in the spring.  In most neighbourhoods these re-lists represent only a small portion of all the new listings. Sales in the freehold market jumped significantly nearly tripling from the previous week with 110 freehold properties being sold compared to only 39 in the previous week. We recently heard the story of a property that had been previously listed, but not sold, in the spring that came back to the market with a slightly lower asking price only to be sold in multiple offers for more than the original spring price.

The condo market also saw an uptick in new listings with 337 new units coming to market last week compared to 318 the week before.  While this increase is fairly small it does show a trend of balanced numbers of condo properties coming to market.  Condo sales also increased last week going from 95 two weeks ago to 132 last week.  This represents a healthy 40% increase in condo sales week over week and we will be watching carefully to see how the condo market trends through the remainder of the year.

Ground Control to Major Tom, take your protein pills and put your helmet on. And just like that the Fall market has started. In case you have been away this summer it might be worth a quick recap on just where we are in the real estate world. After a rocking great start to the year with record sales through April the provincial government created their Fair Housing Plan, including their new rules on rental properties and a foreign buyers tax.  Not to be outdone, the federal government then joined the chorus with not one but two increases to the prime interest rate that the banks were only too happy to embrace and have begun to hum the tune of stricter borrowing rules that we have heard before. While the municipal government has kept out of the legislative choir it seems they are mostly hoping all these measures to cool the market don’t work too well, because gosh they really need all that income from the land transfer tax. So what does all this mean to Toronto’s real estate Fall market? It’s a bit too early to say. What we can say is that perhaps we are not all singing the same tune.  The media continues to sing the song of market collapse while from the background singers we are hearing whispers of homes selling with 8 offers and multi-million dollar Rosedale mansions selling after one day on the market.

The freehold sector was up a whopping 450% or five times more new listings than the previous week. This is not unusual for so many listings coming out after labour day. What was unusual was the amount of sold listings down by almost 50% from the previous week, with 20 per cent selling over the asking price. What was notable last week was 29 new listings in the central core listed above $3 million!

The condo market also saw an increase in new listings. Up 200% over the previous week, with the sweet spot being the $400k to $700k. While sales tapered off 45% over the previous week, a substantial amount (34%) of the sales, sold over the asking price. The condo rental market is fierce these days. New listings don’t even last a day and most end up in a bidding war. The average one bedroom in Toronto is now $2,089 a month!

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Back to school in September always feels like the beginning of a new year for real estate. We are all prepping and preparing for the Fall Market. So many predictions are made but time will tell us how it will all unfold. The Toronto Real Estate Board stats came out the other day and the average cost of a home in August was $732,292 up by three percent compared to August 2016.The number of new listings entered into the MLS system was down by 6.7% year-over-year. Home sales in August were down 34.8%. While we might be seeing clouds forming on the horizon, summer real estate numbers aren't always the best indicators of where the market is going.

While the price of detached homes remained unchanged this August compared to last, semi-detached home prices are still up 12.1 percent and the average condominium price has increased 21.4 per cent since August 2016 for an average price of $507,841. The real estate market has the benefit of a strong GDP growth, low interest rates and unemployment. The latest interest hike increase may also spur sales as potential buyers decide to act now to lock in a mortgage rate if they believe more rate increases may be coming.

All these statistics represent the GTA and fail to target the specific statistics in each individual neighbourhood. Our market is very diverse and the numbers of one area are not necessarily reflective of the market as a whole. House hunters still prefer to take their time, but we are seeing a notable increase in confidence after the craziness that set in late spring. It’s too soon to know if the rate hike will change buyer psychology because many opt for five-year fixed terms on their mortgages. The first week after Labour day weekend usually brings a spike in listings so let’s see if that stands true this year!