Corinne McCabe , Broker

Happy New Year ...... So the year begins. Let's sum up the market for 2017.

• GTA realtors reported 92,394 sales through Treb's MLS- down 18.3 percent compared to (113,133) the record set in 2016

• Record sales in Ql were followed by a decline in Q2 and Q3 after the Ontario Fair Housing Plan was announced.

• The average selling price for 2017 was $822,681- up 12.7 percent compared to 2016.

• The "stress" test was introduced in October causing a rush of new listings and sales for November and December.

There is no doubt that the new mortgage rules will impact the purchasing power of buyers in the resale market, pushing everyone down a rung on the property ladder.

Because of the housing bubble in the first quarter of 2017, this year will be a year of data misrepresentation. Any comparison to that bubbly time will make 2018 look bad. The media likes to report comparable data without providing context and the word "crash" might be thrown around liberally.

As for foreign buyers, they still view Canada as a very safe place to put their money, and many other foreign buyers are buying for their children when they attend University here, or for themselves based on a planned future move here.

The condominium resale market we expect to still be robust this year, with asking prices topping $1000 per square feet. The average price for a condo was close to $550,000 for the City of Toronto, up 15 percent compared to 2016.

Many investors still view Toronto condos as great long- term investments, but higher interest rates, rent control, and mortgage rule changes, might leave investors hesitant to buy.

It has only been a couple of weeks into the new year so its difficult to predict what will happen. With all the new rules taking effect this year some buyers and sellers are reluctant to make a move. The waiting game begins!

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

The time is almost upon us to ring in the new year and for many of us to embrace change. The real estate market in 2017 has been anything but typical in the GTA and the fickleness looks set to continue right into 2018. There is so much uncertainty as to how the real estate market will unfold as we head into the new year. Royal LePage is forecasting a 6.8% increase in housing prices next year, but Remax Canada predicts a more conservative 0% price change. So, what will it be? Will the lack of housing supply in big-city markets, including Toronto drive prices up?

The City of Toronto continues to strengthen following the market declines after the province introduced the Ontario Fair Housing Plan in April, and in particular the 15% foreign buyers tax and other cooling measures. The foreign buyers tax has had more of an impact in the 905 area where the residential resale market seems to have stalled.

The condo market has been the hottest sector with the average sale price at $555,396 up twenty-five percent from the same time last year. The high demand for entry-level properties like condos is likely to continue in the new year, as well as a tight vacancy rate for renters.

Going forward what we do not need is further government intervention in the market place. As the market continues to recover in 2018, it is expected to be a more balanced market.

Whatever you celebrate this holiday season, wishing you all peace and joy. Take the time to be with your family and friends and enjoy the fun holiday season.

Happy New Year!

As the calendar flips for the last time this year and we are three weeks shy of Christmas, it feels like we are all gearing up for the holiday festivities. The offices are a little slower, listings are dropping off and the buyers are taking a break. The November stats were released from The Toronto Real Estate Board and for the City of Toronto the average price was up 2 percent to $802,220 from November 2016. We saw a sizable number of new listings (14,349) for the entire GTA, up by 37 percent compared to November 2016. This boost to home ownership could be because of the upcoming changes to mortgage guidelines, which come into effect in January. On a year-to-year basis, the average selling price was up by 13.4 percent compared to same period last year. All the negative headlines are for the entire GTA, but conditions continue to be stronger for the City of Toronto.

The freehold sector in the central and east neighbourhoods saw a drop in new listings last week by 14 percent, while the west end remained on par as the week before. As December approached we also saw a drop in sales by 25 percent for all freehold but the bidding wars were still happening with 27 per cent selling over the asking price.

The condo market in the City of Toronto is still sizzling with the average price now at $555,965. Last week we saw a decline of 12 per cent in new listings for all neighbourhoods and a small decline in sales by 6 percent but the bidding wars were still strong with 32 per cent selling over the asking price. The condo market continues to lead the way in terms of price growth in the GTA.

Over the years we have watched the Black Friday phenomena move north of the border and now it is not unusual to see line-ups outside big box stores in Toronto.  As always the in demand items are electronics, televisions, clothes and… Real Estate? While a few weeks back we might have thought we were headed for an early end to the Fall market, that definitely does not seem to be the case as we get into the second half of November.  Don’t get us wrong, these are not door crasher numbers but sales in the Freehold category increased and the condo market continues to defy every new bit of legislation the government can throw at it.

We have reviewed our holiday/long weekend calendar and are clear for the rest of the year.  We have however entered what is universally known as the ‘Holiday Season’ and the freehold market always respects the holiday season.  So we are not at all surprised to see the number of listings declining from the previous week down 20% to 178 from the 222 the previous week. We did see a nice jump in sales, up 12% to 132 from the 118 the week before.  We believe the new mortgage stress test is keeping the Buyers interested even as the Sellers get to decorating their houses and this resulted in the number of freehold properties selling above their advertised price remaining at the lofty 42%.

The condo market saw a modest decline in both listings and sales but saw an increase in the percentage of properties selling above their listed price, up to 40% from last week’s 35%.  New listings declined 10% to 270 from 299 and sales declined a similar amount to 147 from the 162 the previous week. With the continued pressure from Buyers to buy before the new mortgage rules come in on January 1st, 2018 we expect the condo market to be strong for the rest of the year.

HO HO HO here come the holidays! Santa Clause is coming to town. The annual parade comes to town on Sunday and has been a staple in Toronto for 113 years keeping the tradition alive. Does that mean we are winding down and getting ready for Christmas? It doesn’t seem that way with a swell of new listings hitting the market in the early part of November compared with this time last year. Could this be a sign that sellers are hustling to list before the new “stress test” rules surrounding mortgages come into effect on January 1st.

Last week the freehold market saw 222 new listings in the central core hit the market up 35% from the week before with the east end doubling their new listings from 38 to 77. Sales were brisk for all parts of the city out pacing the week before with the west end up 65 percent. We are still experiencing multiple offers and 45 percent of all sales are selling over the asking price.

The condo market did not see an increase in new listings last week with only 299 listed, but there was a 21 percent increase in sold condos (162) mostly in the central core. Of those condos sold 35 percent sold over the asking price.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

In the olden days of yore we used to judge the changing of the seasons by stepping outside and observing the natural environment.  Cooler evenings and the kaleidoscope of colours  would indicate the onset of Fall and a powdering of snow was a sure indicator that winter was upon us.  The weather seems a less reliable indicator these days but not to worry the world of marketing and retail sales will keep us focused on the changing seasons.  If you haven’t left your house since Halloween you may not have noticed that it is suddenly Christmas everywhere you look. Unfortunately, the real estate market does not flip seasons as easily as your local retailer and the indicators we look for are harder to spot. The fall market is influenced by many things including believe it or not, when we get our first snow fall. Snow and bad weather not only indicate the approaching holidays when nobody really wants strangers tromping through their houses in Uggs and Blundstones and understandably the typical Seller and Buyer start to consider things other than real estate (I know we hardly believe it ourselves). This fall has been a particularly difficult market to get a finger on.  Some days are hotter than average and setting records and some neighbourhoods feel like they are in a cool chill.  New legislation makes some people think that the market will end early and has others thinking it will go to the last day of the year. We will keep on working and let you know how our seasonal transition fairs.

In the freehold market the number of new listings and sales both showed continued declines after seeing numbers rise through the first two weeks of October. Listings were down 7% over the previous week to 166 from 180 but are down a significant 30% since the mid-month high of 237. Sales declined 30% over the previous week from 136 to 93 and the percentage of homes that sold above their advertised price was 46%, down 12% from the previous week.  The east end continues to be the hottest freehold market with 65% of all sales going above their listed price.

The condo market held steady in new listings with an increase of 10% up 28 new listings to 295 last week. The new listings have been incredibly consistent for months with each week being within 10-15% up or down of the previous week.  There seems much less variation in numbers of new condo listings than compared to the freehold market.  There was a similar decline of sales in the condo market as with the freehold market with 26% fewer units selling last week over the previous week.  The number of condos selling above their listed price was 32% which falls within the typical range we have seen the entire fall market, never straying from 25-35% of condos selling above their advertised price. 

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

The Toronto Real Estate Board released the market stats for October and its good news once again! We saw a dramatic increase in sales (7,118) between September and October of almost 12 per cent pointing to stronger fall market conditions. The average selling price for the GTA for October was $780,000 up by 2.3 per cent compared to $762,691 in October 2016. For the City of Toronto the average sale price for October was $818,201 compared to $769,712 in October 2016 up by 6.3 per cent!

"Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However, this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten years. So, while the number of transactions (7,118) was still down relative to last year's record pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up" said Mr. Syrianos, TREB president.

For The City Of Toronto the average price for a detached home is $1,287,765 slightly down by 1.1%. The average price for a semi-detached is up by 5.2% to $948,309. The strongest growth was seen in townhomes averaging at $742,845 up by 8%, but the condo apartment has seen an insane price growth of 21% averaging at $555,004.

Last week in the city the freehold market was down 30% in new listings but up 18% in sales with 58% selling above the asking price. The condo market last week was slightly down in new listings but saw a dramatic 27% increase in sales with 33% selling over the asking price. Similar to what happened in Vancouver, it appears that the psychological impact of The Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind.

Do you have at least 20 per-cent home equity and need a new mortgage? Are your housing costs more than a third of your gross income? If you answered yes and yes, then you should mark January 1, 2018 on our calendar. That's when our banking regulator's new mortgage stress test officially kicks in. And if you meet the criteria above, you may not qualify for as big a mortgage next year as you do today. Will this create a little mini boom? Two consecutive months of rising sales in August and September confirm that buyers are surfacing again and Sellers in the Toronto area seem more confident with more listings coming to market. Agents are predicting a small flurry of buying as people rush to ink a deal before the new requirements come into effect.

The freehold market saw a 15 per cent increase for new listings in all sectors with the east end leading the pack, up over 20 per cent in new listings and 75 percent of the sales in the east sold over asking with plenty of bully offers as well. The central core saw a small increase in new listings but a whopping 50 per cent more sold over the prior week. Bidding wars are up 40 per cent throughout all neighbourhoods.

In the condo market new listings were up 13 per cent with 285 new units up from 253 units from the previous week with the central core leading the way. The units sold were up 10 per cent with a small decline of condos selling over the asking price. Condos that are priced to sell are being snapped up within days of them hitting the market and the sweet spot are condos listed from $400k to $700K.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

We’ve recently noticed a trend of Realtors walking around and playing with yo-yo’s. Yes, that well known toy that goes up and down the string, up and down, up and down.  Forgive us if our emotions are playing out with our toys because the market is starting to feel a little like a yo-yo. One week the market is taking off and then we take a break for the long weekend. The next week we see the listings come out and think up it will go. Then we listen to the government introduce new mortgage rules and we start to wonder if this is the week it will slow down.  But wait, maybe changes to mortgage rules will mean a rush of buyers trying to purchase before the new rules come into effect. Up and down, up and down. In every market there are still people that need and want to buy and sell. People move for life-style and life changes, babies and retirement. Our market is still moving and from what we see it is still moving in an upward direction.  There are still multiple offers on hot properties and the condo market continues to shine.

The freehold market continues to follow the long weekend pattern.  After taking a breather for Thanksgiving we note that as expected the listings are up with people coming to market after waiting out the long weekend.  And as we saw the regular decline of listings before the long weekend we are never surprised that sales are down the week after the holiday break. Listings increased 25% over the previous week though it was interesting to note a slight decrease in listings in the west end compared to a huge increase of 82% in the east end. What we do note with some concern is that the number of listings that sold above their asking price has declined again to 26% from the peak of nearly 50% only four short weeks ago.

The condo market, as we know, cares less for long weekends and acting like the rebellious teen compared to the mature freehold market decided to go in the exact opposite direction. Long weekend and Thanksgiving aside we actually saw a slight decline in new condo listings, down to 253 from 295 the previous week and sales stayed essentially the same moving up slightly to 141 over the 134 sold in the previous week.  Condos that sold above their advertised price represented 34% of the total sales for the week and this is a number that  has remained fairly consistent throughout the fall market.Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Call us unimaginative, but along with being thankful for family, good health and warm fall weather, this year we are going to be thankful for being Realtors®. Again. Sure, it has been and up and down and up kind of year and no we have not moved out of the near bottom ranking of jobs people like to hate, but nobody gets to explore and enjoy the city like we do. As the city learns to live a high-rise lifestyle we Realtors can enjoy some of the city’s most stunning views in the morning and wander amongst the grand homes of Lawrence Park in the afternoon. Condo owners have a bit more to be happy about as overall price growth in that sector continues to outstrip the single home market but recent stats from the Toronto Real Estate Board show all house types up year-over-year in the 416. Happy Thanksgiving!

In the condo market there was a modest decline in new listings as we head into the Thanksgiving long weekend with listings down 12% to 276 from 314 the previous week. Buyers can be thankful, though Sellers are definitely not, that the percentage of condos selling above their listed price continues to decline. This week only (yes, only) 27% of condos sold over their advertised price, down from above 40% in early-September.

In the freehold market the decline in new listings was more pronounced, down 17% from the previous week. While the condo market seems to have found its identity (just keep going up), the freehold market still seems to be looking for stable footing.  We are witnessing a bit of everything, with some listings reducing their prices after a few weeks and some still increasing their price when they don’t get a bidding war on offer night. Bidding wars are still happening with 35% of homes selling above their list price, just not to the same extent they were in the ultra hot spring market.

This past week we in the industry seem to be of two minds.  It seems all the Realtors are holding the same half full glass of water and we are debating the age old question of is the glass half full or is it really half empty. Some Realtors are trying to hold offer dates and others are trying to list where they think a property’s market value lies.  Some are still thinking about the market softening after the April ‘peak’ and others are looking for a new peak this Fall. After watching the steady increase in freehold properties being sold above their listed price this last week we are definitely leaning towards the half glass full philosophy. One thing everyone does seem to agree on is that there is a bit of a lack of quality listings coming to the market.

In the freehold market new listings tailed off a bit last week with 259 new listings coming to market compared to 306 in the previous week. The percentage of freehold properties selling above their listed price increased from 40% to 49%. The hottest product was the $700,000-1,500,000 price range in the east end where 66% of properties sold above their advertised price.  The same category in the west end showed 50% of listings sell above their advertised price and in the central core the number becomes a more modest 38%.

In the condo market new listings have seem to hit a stable number with 314 new listings last week compared to the 337 the week before. The hottest segment of the condo market is also in the $700,000-1,500,000 but overall there was a decline in the number of condos that sold above their advertised price.  Last week saw an easing off of condos that sold above their listed price coming down 6% from the 40% of properties the previous week. With 34% of all condos last week selling above their advertised price the condo market seems to be settling into a nice groove for the Fall market.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

It was with some sadness that we heard the news this week of the death of Wiarton Willy, the lovable groundhog that has predicted with less than perfect results whether we would be free of the grip of winter or due for a prolonged cold spell. And, as we thought fondly of Willy we were reminded of one of our favourite non-real estate movies starring Bill Murray – Groundhog Day. If Bill Murray was a Realtor® he would be living a version of Groundhog Day today. Waking up this morning and looking at the trend in sales he might think he was back in March.  Listings and sales are up in condos and the freehold market and more importantly the percentage of properties selling above their list price reached 40% in both the condo and freehold markets.  While 40% of sales above list may still be far from the Spring days of 80-90% of deals selling above their advertised price it is certainly an interesting trend that we will be watching carefully.

In the freehold market new listings jumped 30% to 306 from 237 the previous week. Several of those new listings are actually re-lists of properties that were previously listed in the Spring market but it is important to note that the market has not been flooded by listings that did not sell in the spring.  In most neighbourhoods these re-lists represent only a small portion of all the new listings. Sales in the freehold market jumped significantly nearly tripling from the previous week with 110 freehold properties being sold compared to only 39 in the previous week. We recently heard the story of a property that had been previously listed, but not sold, in the spring that came back to the market with a slightly lower asking price only to be sold in multiple offers for more than the original spring price.

The condo market also saw an uptick in new listings with 337 new units coming to market last week compared to 318 the week before.  While this increase is fairly small it does show a trend of balanced numbers of condo properties coming to market.  Condo sales also increased last week going from 95 two weeks ago to 132 last week.  This represents a healthy 40% increase in condo sales week over week and we will be watching carefully to see how the condo market trends through the remainder of the year.

Ground Control to Major Tom, take your protein pills and put your helmet on. And just like that the Fall market has started. In case you have been away this summer it might be worth a quick recap on just where we are in the real estate world. After a rocking great start to the year with record sales through April the provincial government created their Fair Housing Plan, including their new rules on rental properties and a foreign buyers tax.  Not to be outdone, the federal government then joined the chorus with not one but two increases to the prime interest rate that the banks were only too happy to embrace and have begun to hum the tune of stricter borrowing rules that we have heard before. While the municipal government has kept out of the legislative choir it seems they are mostly hoping all these measures to cool the market don’t work too well, because gosh they really need all that income from the land transfer tax. So what does all this mean to Toronto’s real estate Fall market? It’s a bit too early to say. What we can say is that perhaps we are not all singing the same tune.  The media continues to sing the song of market collapse while from the background singers we are hearing whispers of homes selling with 8 offers and multi-million dollar Rosedale mansions selling after one day on the market.

The freehold sector was up a whopping 450% or five times more new listings than the previous week. This is not unusual for so many listings coming out after labour day. What was unusual was the amount of sold listings down by almost 50% from the previous week, with 20 per cent selling over the asking price. What was notable last week was 29 new listings in the central core listed above $3 million!

The condo market also saw an increase in new listings. Up 200% over the previous week, with the sweet spot being the $400k to $700k. While sales tapered off 45% over the previous week, a substantial amount (34%) of the sales, sold over the asking price. The condo rental market is fierce these days. New listings don’t even last a day and most end up in a bidding war. The average one bedroom in Toronto is now $2,089 a month!

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Back to school in September always feels like the beginning of a new year for real estate. We are all prepping and preparing for the Fall Market. So many predictions are made but time will tell us how it will all unfold. The Toronto Real Estate Board stats came out the other day and the average cost of a home in August was $732,292 up by three percent compared to August 2016.The number of new listings entered into the MLS system was down by 6.7% year-over-year. Home sales in August were down 34.8%. While we might be seeing clouds forming on the horizon, summer real estate numbers aren't always the best indicators of where the market is going.

While the price of detached homes remained unchanged this August compared to last, semi-detached home prices are still up 12.1 percent and the average condominium price has increased 21.4 per cent since August 2016 for an average price of $507,841. The real estate market has the benefit of a strong GDP growth, low interest rates and unemployment. The latest interest hike increase may also spur sales as potential buyers decide to act now to lock in a mortgage rate if they believe more rate increases may be coming.

All these statistics represent the GTA and fail to target the specific statistics in each individual neighbourhood. Our market is very diverse and the numbers of one area are not necessarily reflective of the market as a whole. House hunters still prefer to take their time, but we are seeing a notable increase in confidence after the craziness that set in late spring. It’s too soon to know if the rate hike will change buyer psychology because many opt for five-year fixed terms on their mortgages. The first week after Labour day weekend usually brings a spike in listings so let’s see if that stands true this year!

As we approach the middle of August, the traffic around the city gets a little lighter and it seems like it’s your last chance to take a bit of a breather before we start to think about getting ready for the fall real estate market. There is much talk around the office about all the new listings that will be hitting MLS after Labour Day. Will it be a repeat of May when we saw an excess of listings come to market? Are buyers waiting patiently for the impending influx of new listings to satisfy their desire for a place to call home?

The freehold sector remained relatively unchanged from the previous week. Sales were steady but the amount of new listings has tapered off by 33 per cent. The $700k to $1.5m price range was the busiest sector and 43 per cent of the sales, sold over the asking price. The west end was the hot spot this week for buyers with more than half of the homes selling over asking.

The condo sector has eased off as well with slightly less new listings and 12 per cent less sales. The hot spot is the $400K to $700K price range in the central core and 18 percent of the sales, sold over asking. The big talk in the office this week was the rental market with condo rentals receiving as many as 16 offers! Trying to find a rental in Toronto is a lot like online dating. With students going back to school renting in Toronto is the hardest it’s ever been. With rents increasing on average 11% in the last year, the average one bedroom in Toronto is $2,089 a month.

The dog days of August are upon us.  The weather is finally hot, hot, hot and sipping drinks on a patio is where we all want to be.  Listings are slowing down but last week sales were slightly up by 8%.   There was a significant increase in open house traffic last weekend and agents are seeing more appointments being booked on their listings.  Stories around the office of properties that had 9, 16 and 18 offers this week got everyone all talking.   Is pricing low to generate offers the way to go?

Some agents believe to list with an asking price close to market value and accept offers anytime and some believe to list low and set a date for offers.  The latter seems to be happening again.  It’s too soon to tell if a flurry of sales signals a trend that some buyers simply need to move on with their lives.

The July resale housing market figures were just released for the GTA, and results show we were down 40.4% in sales on a year-over-year basis and listings were up slightly (5%) above last year.  The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 5% from 2016 to $746,218.  Sumer market statistics are often not the best indicators of housing market conditions.  “Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market conditions evolve.”, said Mr. Syrianos, TREB president.

Are we all tired of reading and listening to what the media has to say about the housing market in Toronto? There wasn't a week that went by that some so called expert didn't write their views about the market. For sure market conditions have changed and we are all adjusting, so why don't they give it a rest. The last major housing correction followed a global economic crisis in 2008. The conditions aren't there this time for a major market meltdown. The Toronto market still needs time to absorb how the buyers and sellers are going to react to the policy changes.

The Toronto Real Estate Board's midmonth numbers for July show sales down 39.3% year over year in the first half of July. With sales down and new listings slightly up {6.5%) the market was better supplied compared to last year. This gave us a more moderate 7.4% annual growth rate for the average selling price, which is $776,036 for the City of Toronto.

Despite the recent dip in GTA home sales the condo market is continuing to gain popularity with home buyers. First time buyers who want to live in the city have turned their attention in increasing numbers to less expensive forms of housing. The average selling price for condominium apartments increased 28.1% compared to 2016. The average price for a condo in the City of Toronto is $566,513, compared to $442,834 in 2016.

House prices go up, house prices go down. Whatever happens the rest of the year, Toronto housing is probably a safe bet. Toronto is a very attractive destination!

The traffic has slowed down and you can tell most people have ventured out of town for their summer holidays. The weather has finally warmed up and everyone is taking advantage of the great outdoors. Open house attendance has dropped off and property showings have slowed down. In real estate language, we call this "The Summer Market".

It's easy to see the freehold sector easing into the summer market. Listings remained unchanged except for a slight increase in the 3 million plus range. There is still some good news. Homes selling in the $700 to $1.5m range, almost half of them sold over asking!

In the condo sector the number of new listings has not increased but a surprising number of condos (35) are available in the $300-400 range and more than 50% have sold over the asking price. Good news for the first time buyers with a small budget.

The Bank of Canada interest rate hike last week could prolong the slowdown of the Toronto housing market, but economist Benjamin Tal said it is not expected to last long term. "What led to the slowdown in Vancouver was really more domestic buyers waiting to see what the foreign buyers tax will do."

While Toronto could follow a similar path to the Vancouver market that saw a significant decline, there are other factors now at play, Tal said.

"We also see interest rates going up and the regulators are talking about introducing more measures to slow down the market" he said. "That's why it's possible the slowdown in Toronto will be more durable than the slowdown in Vancouver." 

If you are working the downtown condo market or involved in the ridiculously heated rental market you might wonder what all the talk is about a declining real estate market.  However, if you are working the uptown detached market you might be trying to focus your inner Stuart Smalley by slowly repeating “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough and gosh darn it people want to buy my listings”. Buyers who are looking at the entry level market, which these days means small condos, are in tough and often competing for a space to call home.  The Buyers that had been chomping at the bit and competing for the large detached homes seem to have completely forgotten that they ever wanted to buy anything at all.

The freehold market has continued its slow march to the summer months with a decline in sales of nearly 45% to only 64 sales this past week compared to 113 the week before. And while we still here the odd story of multiple offers, the number of homes selling above their listed price has dropped to only 20%.  Listings last week increased substantially over the week before with an increase of almost 50%. Most of the increase in new listings came in the east and west areas while the central core remained fairly consistent over the previous week.

The condo market has also settled into the summer cycle with an increase in new listings and a decline in sales over the previous week. Maybe the most interesting aspect of the condo market is the difference between the entry level condo and the high end condo market. If you are looking to get into the starter market in condos be prepared for continued stiff competition.  More than 50% of the condos listed under $700,000 sold above their advertised price which is a trend we have been watching closely for several weeks.  It was reported that an aggressively priced condo in the central core recently garnered the attention of 40 offers.  Lucky for the 39 bidders that lost that there are a whole lot more condos coming to market this summer for them to bid on. Not so lucky perhaps are sellers of high end condos who have seen a marked decrease in sales activity.

Pride week in Toronto was a colourful success and Bosley's participation in Family Pride was a whole lot-of-fun! As we are coming up to the much anticipated "Canada 150" long weekend, this will be a weekend to participate in the festivities around town. With so many events happening in Toronto to celebrate Canada's big birthday it will be hard to narrow down which events to attend.  (Check them out here)

It's not unusual for listings to start tapering off before a long weekend. Last week new listings were down slightly by 9% for the freehold sector compared to the week before, but in the condo market, new listings were up a whopping 43%. Interestingly half of the freehold homes in the $700 to $1.5m range, sold over the asking! In the central core it seems that first time buyers are taking advantage of the $400 -$700 price range where more than 50% of the action was. As a TD economist pointed out, last month marked the first time since 2010 that growth in condo prices in Canada outpaced the rise in single-family home prices.

We have seen plenty of rain this summer, almost as much as we have listened to the media, which continues to report a cooling market, but there are great buys out there. The art of negotiating is upon us. We are seeing a shift in the market but the sky is not falling. Overall, prices are still up but expectations need to be managed.

How lucky are we to live in a country as cool as Canada! Happy Canada Day eh!