Corinne McCabe , Broker

What’s up with Toronto’s real estate market? By all accounts, this is a different fall market than one we are used to. Listings are down by as much as 31.7% for freehold homes but are up by 6% in the condo sector compared to a year ago. Unit sales are tracking similarly year over year in both the condo and freehold sectors. In discussion with our sales agents it is clear that the single key factor responsible for low inventory levels rests on the upcoming federal election. While the outcome will certainly not have an immediate or significant impact on home values most sellers are simply waiting it out.  Our research indicates that buyers outnumber sellers by approximately 5 to 1 in the city’s core neighbourhoods.

As mentioned, freehold listings have backed off by about 12% from the previous week however sales are up by 13.5%. It is interesting to note however that the percentage of listings selling at or above the list price decreased slightly from 73% to 70.6%. Despite world turmoil, home demand remains stronger than the previous year when only 65% of homes sold at or above the asking price. While the east core has been consistently hot for most of the year, last week it was the west core that was the new champ as nearly 80% of homes were sold with buyer competition. 

The condo resale market has posted another exceptional week. Sales have been on an upward trajectory throughout the Fall market, climbing an additional 15% last week from 187 to 215 units. New listings are down 14% overall since the previous week despite a significant rise in entry level ($200k-$400k) condos in the downtown core. Condos sold at or above the list price hit a new all-time high percentage last week with 31.6% beating out the previous record of 30% set in late May of this year.

Two weeks ago we witnessed a tsunami of new listings in downtown Toronto but a relatively lackluster sales performance left us feeling kind of empty. We made the bold statement that perhaps the reason sales were so low was because most of the new listings were holding back offers until the following week. We bravely predicted that sales would spike dramatically soon after and we are happy to report that we were right on the money. We didn’t need a crystal ball; our prediction was based on a solid understanding of Toronto’s real estate market.

Freehold listings climbed another 24% last week as Sellers all across the city take advantage of continued strong demand for homes. This was particularly evident in the $1.5M + market throughout all core neighbourhoods where listings shot up over 250%. Sales outperformed with an overall increase of 310% over the previous week but sales of homes at or above the list price jumped to 73%, one of the highest levels since March of this year.  The east core was the shining star of the week where 87% of all homes sold over the asking price.

The resale condominium market is not showing any signs of slowing down. While listings throughout the core only increased by a nominal 3% it was the nearly 30% increase in sales that caught our eye. Overall, 22% of all condos across the downtown core sold at or above the list price. While the biggest gain in sales volume took place in the central part of the city it was the east and west cores that attracted the most buyers with nearly 50% of condos being sold at or above the list price.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 240 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

And just like that, as if someone flipped a switch, the Fall market started. It seems like a repeat from last year. The signal is as clear as the Snowbird’s last flyby…a salute to the end of summer holidays and return to the high stresses of multiple offers. Agents are out preparing listings while contractors, painters, and stagers stand at the ready. Our offices are stocking up on coffee in preparation.

Listings are up. Not just a little. Last week we saw new listings double to just over 400. The largest increase took place in the east core where sellers took to the market in droves. New listings were up a remarkable 500% while calmer heads prevailed in the west with a more realistic 53% increase in listings. With all the new activity one would expect increased sales activity however it appears that all the new listings just gave buyers more choice. There is also a subtle factor that is often overlooked. In a response to low listing levels over the summer, most new listings have offer dates for the following week. This means that, if we are right, next week there will be a substantial spike in the number of sales in the core.  It will be interesting to see if we move the needle higher than the current 50% level for homes sold  at or above the list price.

The condo sector, still the shining star of Toronto’s real estate market, performed slightly better. Listings were up by a very reasonable 37% while sales backed off by only 22% from the week earlier. A full 16.5% of all sales happened at or above the list price. Still, our research indicates that condos located in more neighbourhood-y locations, particularly lofts,  continue to outperform large downtown towers. Clearly, buyers are making lifestyle choices and are willing to pay slightly more for something other than the sky-high experience.Sept

The Danforth East Arts Fair is fast approaching!  Bosley is sponsoring the event, and we have a booth, so make sure to put it in your calendars and drop by to say hello!

Free weekend alert. If you think your inner clock is out of whack, you are right. The holiday gods are making up for that ridiculously early Easter and giving us an extra week of summer. The real estate market woke up to this realization last week as well. After a quick uptick in listings and activity the market backed off to traditional summer levels. Our feeling is that there are a lot of last-minute trip takers out there doing their best to squeeze out a few more summer days.

Take for example the freehold sector. After a 10% jump in listings two weeks ago levels went down 20.7% last week. It is interesting to note however that sales across the downtown core jumped almost 40%. With large discrepancies in listing to sales the core is eating away at existing inventories which could create bigger demand in the fall. A further indicator of market strength is the number of sales at or above the list price. While dipping down from the previous week we are still at a healthy 55% for this reporting period.

In the condominium sector new listings have remained relatively unchanged over the last week while sales are down a little over 10% (from 200 units to 181 units).  Sales at or above the list price are currently at 16.6% which is a solid indicator that the condo market is trading well. In the central core we noted a significant increase in luxury condos coming to market last week while there was a decline in number of mid-priced listings ($400k to $700k).

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 240 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

Now that the Pan Am Games are officially over, and the CNE has started, bad drivers are once again abusing the left lane, traffic in the west end is a disaster and minds are turning back to real estate. Another sure sign that Fall is just around the corner? Pent up housing demand is, once again, the number one topic of conversation.  Despite the extra week of Summer this year, an increase in activity leads us to believe that people are returning from vacation a little sooner than usual.

Case in point…the freehold sector. Listings have increased by 10% over the last two weeks and sales have increased by 11% but what is most interesting is the number of sales that have taken place at or above the list price. After sitting at around the 40% mark, last week that number shot up to almost 59%. Sold activity was the strongest in the entry level market ($400k-$700k) in the east core where the number of sales increased by 42%.

A similar picture of the overall real estate market exists within the condominium sector. Although the number of new listings decreased by 4.6% last week, sales increased by 3.6% to 200 units, with 21% of those sales happening at or above the list price (up from 19% two weeks ago).  Not surprisingly, there were fewer new listings in the central core’s entry level condo sector ($200k-$400K) yet it was that same sector that saw the biggest gain in sales.

Last week we were reminded of the one question that has stumped scientists the world over; if a tree falls in the forest, and there’s no one there to hear it, does it actually make a noise? In terms of downtown Toronto real estate it seems that we could ask a similar question….If there’s no one around to buy a house, does anything sell? Luckily keeping a sharp eye on everything related to the housing market provides us with all the answers to that question and more.

The freehold market took a well needed rest last week. New listings backed off by 17% from the previous week and sales eased by nearly 65%. While that seems like a large percentage, it is in line with traditional summer markets and the long weekend hangover. Naturally the true gauge of the health of the freehold market lies in the fact that nearly 40% of all homes sold happened above the list price. While certainly off its peak, that number is considered strong given the natural and cyclical slowdown in the market.

The condominium sector continues its conscious uncoupling to the general real estate market. Consider that while listings and sales are both down (3.3% and 10.8% respectively) more buyers are vying for this segment of the market which is forcing an increased percentage of sales happening at or above the list price. Over the past two weeks that number has increased 4%, from 15% to 19% which is only a few points off a record high. It is interesting to note that while sales across all price points have backed off slightly in the central core, they have increased substantially in both the east and west core.

There are two simple truths that we learned last week; Kanye West is NOT a Canadian and Toronto’s real estate market turned in another gold medal performance. Sure, things are slowing down a bit but that’s more a seasonal tendency. What catches our eye is the fact that while listings are way down in both the freehold and condo sectors, sales are only down a little. Clearly demand is still raging downtown but supply continues to be the major issue.

Nowhere is the supply and demand conundrum more evident than in the freehold sector where supply is down 19% from the week earlier and sales backed off by 6.7%. While that 12.3% spread is significant, we also noticed that fewer homes were selling in multiple offers. Our agents are reporting less competition at the offer table which leads us to conclude that many buyers are taking a temporary hiatus from the market. This is especially evident in the $1.5M+ market across the downtown core where sales have backed off over 42% from a week earlier.

The condo sector is exhibiting the same traits as the freehold sector with a drop of 9.4% in available listings compared to the previous week. We found it interesting to note that while the overall decline in the number of sales was 3.3%, that decline came from the east and west core of the city. In the central core there was actually a 20% increase in sales volume from the previous week primarily in the $400k-$700k price range.

A few weeks ago we determined that the Pan Am Games would contribute to lower listings and lower sales numbers because many people were planning on escaping the city. Hey, we were right….until everyone realized that the traffic just wasn’t that bad. It appears that now is as good a time as any to sell a home. So, if you are hiding out in parts unknown you might be missing out on that dream home.

The freehold sector had one of the single highest week over week changes with a noticeable 25.6% increase in new listings and a similarly grandiose 54.5% increase in sales last week. With that increase came slightly more demand as transactions at or above the list price edged up 2.5% from the previous week to stand at 54.5%. What stands out the most when we reviewed last week’s data was the amount of movement in the entry level home ($400k to $700k) across the city’s core where listings increased by 37%. While the single detached Toronto home has topped the million dollar mark, there is plenty of room for those on a more modest budget.

The condo sector has been fairly tame for the past few weeks. New listings have inched down 3% from a few weeks ago while sales have essentially remained unchanged. Higher end condo sales have taken a hiatus having registered a complete shut out on any condo above $1.5m. That falls in line with a recent article by Canadian Real Estate Magazine that reports that “demand for condos is at an all-time high as millennials and first-time buyers look to affordably enter the market while maintaining a property with some kind of appreciation value”. 

Last week’s market activity reads like a good news/bad news story. It’s kind of like Toronto traffic. Thanks to the Pan Am Games there is very little road construction, but the bad news is there’s one less lane to drive in. For those of us who have a short commute there’s always the bike but if a quick get-a-way to the cottage is needed we suggest you make your escape extra early.

It’s easy to see the freehold sector easing into the Summer market. Listings remained unchanged over the previous week, running at 308 new listings in the central, east and west core but sales have trailed off by 56.3% over the same period. The biggest decline comes from the higher end central core where sales of homes over $1.5M were cut in half from the previous week (to 17 units). There is some good news however. Homes selling at or above the list price increased by 3% last week, to 56.3%. We believe that buyers are still very active in the market place but are taking a bit more time to make their decision.

In the condo sector listings have increased 8.9% since the week prior but have remained consistent over the last month at (767 listings in the downtown core). Sales are also down by a marginal 4.9% which only represents about 10 sales over the week. It is worth reporting that the key indicator of the condo market health has to be the percentage of suites selling at or above the list price. Last week that percentage was at a very encouraging 24.5% level.

Are you confused by the HOV lanes? Wondering how you are going to make it around the city over the next month? Wondering if it will ever warm up? We wish we could help. But if the latest information on Toronto real estate is something you need, well, we’re the company for you. Every week we pore through the data and talk to our managers and agents on the street to get you the latest information…just like this;

After hitting nearly 500 new freehold listings in early May, things have slowed down as we enter the traditional Summer market. Last week we dropped to just over 300 new listings. It seems that buyers are still out in full force however as sales increased by 5% last week. We found it interesting that sales at or above the list price tapered down to 53.8%, one of the lowest numbers this year. We expect that sales may underperform during the month of July thanks to the Pan Am Games but demand will not slow down. This should make the fall market exceptionally busy.

Like the freehold sector, new condo listings backed off by 8.9% last week and we saw a 16% reduction in the number of units sold. While the numbers don’t show it, we believe the condo market remains strong as the indicator that we follow, the number of suites that sell at or above asking price, was a very healthy 25.5%. The mid-market condo ($700k to $1.5m) in the central core was one of the hotter segments of the market followed by the entry level condo ($200k to $400k) in both the east and west cores.

Noted business professor Aaron Levenstein once quipped that ‘statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital’. As big fans of statistics (and bikinis) we couldn’t agree more that’s why, every now and then, we like to look back a year and do a little market comparison to see if anything has changed. This week we “reveal” our findings.

It’s funny how everyone seems to complain about the lack of listings. The truth of the matter is that last year at this time there were nearly half as many freehold listings available on the market.  Sales continue to be strong year over year although comparatively the percentage of sales to listings last week was 51.7% vs 72.1% for the same week last year. The numbers indicate that demand may have slipped until you also consider the fact that both weeks recorded the same percentage of deals happening at or above the list price (59%).

The condominium sector is more interesting. Available new listings are up by about 48% from the same week one year ago while sales are up by nearly 65%.  Clearly the condominium sector has beaten all expectations. Where a year ago 20% of sales were trading at or above the list price, last week that number was 28%. Our research indicates that most of this is a result of first time buyers choosing condos over homes, due, in part, to affordability as well as lifestyle choices. 

Two interesting news items piqued our interest last week. The first was that the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that  housing markets in Calgary and Edmonton had rebounded nicely, suggesting that uncertainty about the future of Alberta’s Oil industry may be easing. The second was that CMHC are taking steps to slow the market by hiking mortgage default insurance premiums for those buying with less than 10% down payment. These two events, while not related, speak to the continued health of Canada’s real estate market.

Freehold listings grew by a marginal 3% last week while sales backed off by 6%. The separation of more listings and fewer sales is in keeping with historic patterns as we transition from a hot spring market to a more subdued summer market. It also means that as demand cools we see fewer multiple offers. Considering that just a month ago over 72% of homes traded across Toronto’s core were sold in multiples we are now at a more reasonable 60% level.  The big surprise last week was the central core’s high end market where we saw 18 sales over $3m compared to 3 sales two weeks ago.

As for the condo market all we can say is that you’d better keep the playbook close because it’s hard to keep up. Following a jump of almost 11% in condo listings a few weeks ago, last week listings fell by almost 10% yet unit sales has remained virtually unchanged at 264 units. The number of suites selling at or above the list price is down to 22.3% compared to 24% a week earlier. This is the number we keep a keen eye on as it is a true indicator on the health of the condo market.

Hard to believe we are half way through 2015 already. If that thought is depressing, don’t forget that the best is yet to come. Sunshine and heat waves are in our future and while still sizzling, there are signs that Toronto’s real estate market has backed off from the frantic pace that was the Spring market. That should come as some relief to those sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to purchase a new home.

The freehold market has reversed its month long trend by recording nearly 11% fewer listings last week. Sales followed suit registering almost 15% fewer transactions and the percentage of homes selling at or above the list price was a more reasonable 67.7% compared to 72% a month ago. Clearly the effect of less product is not causing increased bidding wars. Sales of freehold homes continues to be robust but there is less urgency in the market. The hotspots last week were the east and west cores of the city where nearly 80% of entry level homes ($400K-$700K) sold in multiple offers.

Last week the condo sector increased new listings by nearly 11%, one of its largest increases this year. Sales however backed off by a marginal 6%. The end result of more listings and fewer sales meant that the number of suites selling in multiple offers also backed off to 24%. This is still a solid number and a strong indicator that the condo market is extremely healthy. This week the hotspot has shifted west where nearly half of condos sold in the west core sold in multiple offers.

Just when you think you have a handle on the market, something changes and you are forced to re-evaluate. Eventually there comes a point when you just have to strap yourself in and recognize that it’s next to impossible to predict what’s going on in Toronto’s real estate market. As the old saying goes….nothing is as constant as change.

Case in point, the number of new freehold listings. Last week new listings were WAY up, this week they’re down by 3%. In complete contradiction to that pattern, sales are WAY up by over 88% from a week ago. And while the percentage of homes selling in multiple offers was off last week (54.3%), it seems like we are returning to more aggressive territory with almost 70% of homes selling at or above the list price. The big surprise of the week has to be the high end market, homes listed above $3M, where we had a near record 9 sales in the week.

Similar to the freehold market, the number of new condo listings has been going up and down like soccer fans doing the wave. This week listings are back down by 3.4%, but sales have jumped by an astonishing 41% from the previous week. While not in record territory, nearly 28% of suites sold at or above the list price. The hottest area this week is the $400K-$700K sector in the central core where 31% of the condos sold at or above the list price.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto and Niagara-on-the-Lake since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 230 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

Home buyers are apparently agreeing with Finance Minister Joe Oliver’s assessment of the Canadian real estate market....there is no bubble. Home prices across the country are rising and so is the number of multifamily units under construction. Clearly the Spring market is here and with the first long weekend of the summer behind us, sales and listing activity is on the rise.

New freehold listings are up by 15.8% over two weeks ago. When you factor in some lower numbers due to the long weekend, it appears that listings have been increasing relatively steadily for the past two months. But increased listings also means better choice for buyers, more time to decide and fewer multiple offers. In fact, sales this week are off by about 50% from two weeks ago. Our research shows another interesting fact….multiple offers are slowing down from a high of 75% of every home sale to a more reasonable 54% this week. This seems reasonable considering the same number of buyers are looking at more listings.

If we could call a champion in the real estate battle, we would have to give it to the condo sector.  Despite a recent Fitch Ratings Inc warning on condominiums, listings have been relatively stable for the last few weeks (averaging about 770 new listings per week) and sales have consistently kept pace. Again, the true temperature of the condo market lies in its ability to garner multiple offers on units and it is here that the sector is shining. This week 30% of the condos sold at or above the list price. Like the freehold sector the East is king where 75% of condos sold in multiple offers.

Ok, so maybe you didn’t get the memo. That’s understandable. It’s hard to pull yourself away from another crushing Habs defeat. But trust us when we say… Toronto real estate is just as hot as it was last month.  Sure, an impending long weekend has a natural cooling effect on the market but don’t sit by the sidelines for too long. Buying a house in a Seller’s market requires dedication, perseverance, and fortitude.

New freehold listings backed off a substantial 31.7% this week (representing over 100 fewer homes on the market).  Clearly, people were thinking more about enjoying a cold beverage by the lake than getting their houses ready to sell. While listings were down, sales were up (by 5%) which in turn created nothing short of a mini buying frenzy.  In fact 72.2% of all homes sold in the downtown core occured at or above the asking price. While this is not the highest percentage we have seen this year, the trend seems to be heading toward record territory.

The condominium market seems to have adopted a ‘slow and steady wins the race’ stance.  Listings are down by 4.3% from the week earlier but sales are down a corresponding 4.1%. Our research continues to show two very hot segments of the condo market. Nearly 50% of mid-range condos in the central core ($700K-$1.5M) and almost 50% of entry level condos in the east core ($400K-$700K) drew multiple offers. Our belief is that these two markets are being fed by would-be house purchasers unable to enter the freehold market.

Come here what planning students have come up with for our Danforth strip!  This should be really interesting.

It’s May. It’s really May. We just can’t believe it is finally here. All those nights spent around the dinner table talking about the horrible, unbearably cold winter we had. Do you remember scraping all the ice from the windshield? How about climbing over snow drifts? And then presto! It’s over….at least until we all start complaining about the heat, the brownouts, and the funky tasting water.

Our adaptation of the old saying about spring showers bringing May flowers is… “Warm days bring listings for May”. Ok, we may not be poets but we are happy to report that new freehold listings are up again. The increase is widespread across the entire core of the city but most prevalent in the move-up markets in the central districts. Overall, the number of new listings is up just over 35%. Sales have remained identical to the week earlier both in terms of units sold (234) and number of sales at or above the asking price (68%). 

The condo market is…well, pretty much the same as it was last week. We don’t get to say that very often. While listings are up about 9% from a week earlier, they are still off the peak of 786 units just a few weeks ago. Sales are stronger by 7% over the same period and suites selling at or above the asking price is down marginally (from 29.6 last week to 28.1). No wild fluctuations translates into continued strength in Toronto’s re-sale condo market. This week we note that the most active category was the $700k to $1.5M price point in the central core where 41% of condos traded at or above the list price.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto and Niagara-on-the-Lake since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 230 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

One of the best presents we got last week was the end of construction on the Gardiner Expressway. After more than a year of lane closures and avoidance at all costs, we are falling in love with our elevated highway all over again. No more playing “guess the alternative route across town”. This is great news for Realtors who can travel with ease across the bottom of the city... at least until the Pan Am games. 

In a surprising twist, new freehold listings backed off by a little over 8% last week. Most of that came as a result of fewer listings in the central core. While sales have remained strong we did notice that the number of bidding wars dropped to 68% (from 70% the week prior).  We are blaming this minor decrease on the crazy amount of rain that fell last week.  Also of note was a near sweep in the central core’s entry level category ($400K-$700K) where 11 out of 13 homes sold in multiple offers.

Following the freehold category’s lead, new condo listings fell by 11% from the week earlier. The big story is the number of sales which increased over 8% in the same period to 260 units. Sure that’s great news but the bigger story is the fact that the number of suites sold at or above the asking price has reached one of the highest levels since we have been tracking it. That number is a remarkable 29.6%. It is the east core condo market that is driving prices up with 8 out of 10 condos selling in multiple offers (compared to just 3 out of 15 in the west).