Its official...not only are the “Boys of Summer” back in town but Toronto’s spring market has officially kicked into high gear. There’s no denying that the process is exciting but, just like baseball, there are winners and losers. To win at real estate, you need an experienced agent on your side, waving you in from third base.   

After languishing at historically low listing levels, the freehold market took an 18.4% gain with a total of 277 new homes listed in the downtown core last week. Unfortunately the increased choice did not calm buyers as sales climbed by a remarkable 40.4% with nearly 79% of homes selling at or above the list price. In the east core, there were more sales than listings while the west core actually recorded fewer new listings on the market but a weekly increase in sales.

The condo market continues its torrid pace with a slight 6.2% rise in new listings and a 3.2% increase in sales. For the fourth week in a row, sales of condos sold at or above the list price continues to track above the 30% mark coming in at 31.5%. The central core traditionally has more sales and listings purely due to a higher concentration of condominium buildings but the east and west cores, with larger and more affordable suites, have similar demands in all but the higher price ranges ($1.5M plus). 

The date may say April 1st, but let us be clear...there is no joke about the Toronto real estate market. Hold tight, the spring market, the season of multiple offers , is upon us. Buying a property these days requires nerves of steel and a determined constitution. For the next few months  media outlets will be sharing stories of stunning wins and colossal losses. Get ready for Toronto's own version of "Game of Homes".

Last week new freehold listings  jumped to their highest level since November 2015 recording a dramatic rise of 49% over the previous week.  With 234 new homes to choose from, buyers are coming out of their long winter slumber. Our downtown office reported that over 300 people showed up over the weekend to look at a home in the downtown west core.  Sales are up as well with a 22% increase over the previous week. Generally there is a lag between a sharp increase in listings and the corresponding increase in sales due to sellers pushing back offer nights by a week to allow maximum exposure to the market. The percentage of homes sold at or over the list price has been consistent, hovering in the 60-65% range.

The condo market continues to build on its successes. Like its freehold counterpart, listings have improved but by a much more modest 16%. Still,  that translates to a near record 628 suites. Most of that increase has come from the mid-entry level market ($400k-$700k) in the central core. Sales have increased by 20% over the past week with a remarkable 40% of condos in the central core's  $400-$700k range selling at or over the list price. Overall, we have reached a record high 35% of condos across the downtown core selling at or above the list price.

Last week was a repeat of last year where we had the perfect storm of back-to-back holidays. First there was March Break followed closely by Easter long weekend. Not surprisingly, these events play havoc with an otherwise busy Toronto real estate market. It’s a tospy-turvy world out there but with no holidays for the foreseeable future we should see more predictable increases in listings and strong sales in the downtown core. And there’s even more good news...Summer is just around the corner!

It’s no big surprise that freehold listings are down, but there is a silver lining in that cloud. Last week we were only off by 14.6% compared to the same period last year when we saw an almost 45% decline in new listings. So, while the percentage drop is much better we still have fewer new listings overall for buyers to choose from. Sales remain strong with roughly 60% of all homes selling at or above the list price - where we saw 70% or more of available homes selling over asking in 2015. This year that number has stayed consistently in the 60% range. We believe this is more likely as a result of a higher list price and the fact that buyers are looking for other options, like condos. 

There is no question that the success of the condominium sector is being driven by frustrated house buyers. The percentage of sales at or over the list price continues to track in the 30%+ range compared to the teens and low 20’s of a year ago. Last week’s 32.3% rate seems surprising when you consider the usual holiday slowdown.  The condo hotspots include the $400k-$700k range in the central core and the $200k-$400k range in both the east and west core. 

How Bosleys weathered ups and downs of Toronto's real estate business

The artifacts of a nearly century-old family firm decorate Thomas Bosley’s real estate headquarters in Davisville Village. There’s a portrait of a venerable looking William H. Bosley, the company’s founder, framed pictures of the sons and grandson who followed in his footsteps, and the vintage shingle that announced the firm’s birth in 1928.

In a conference room, a wall is covered with certificates from a trade that for residents of cities with vertiginous property prices can become an unhealthy obsession. They honour the Bosley name across the decades as presidents of both the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), which William helped found in 1920, and its national analog.

Tradition can be stifling. But there’s nothing of the stuffy scion in Thomas Bosley, the 68-year-old grandson of the company’s founder. He likes to keep things light, and his employees seem happy to oblige.

“Make sure you get a picture of his socks,” a receptionist shouts as Bosley poses for a Star photographer. Bosley immediately hikes up his pant legs and reveals black socks with big white polka dots and a splash of red up the heel. “I buy them for my management team,” he says, smiling.

Bosley has the relaxed satisfaction of a self-made man in the twilight of his career. Despite its deep roots, W.H. Bosley and Co. was drowning in debt when Thomas took it over in 1985. He turned it around by focusing almost exclusively on residential property sales, and by training real estate agents who last year made $1.3 billion worth of property transactions under his company’s banner.

“My business philosophy is have fun and make money,” says Bosley, president and broker of record of the rechristened Bosley Real Estate Ltd.

The golf clubs and balls in his office on Merton St. make that clear enough. He putts them down stairs, along hallways and eventually to the basement during the office “tournaments” he organizes. “We have prizes.”

Another habit is to rise from the desk that once belonged to his late father and look out the window. He sees across a driveway and into the main office space of a separate building, which is also part of his headquarters. By eyeing the agents at their desks, and the cars in the company parking lot, he gets a good idea of who is around making deals.

 

“One day, I looked out at the office there and my No. 1 sales agent mooned me,” he says. “How many companies can you do that to the president?”

COLE BURSTON FOR THE TORONTO STAR

Thomas Bosley cut a deal with his father in the mid-1970s to give up his salary and live strictly off commissions he made on house sales. In his first month, he earned $12,000.

Bosley expects the good times to keep rolling, and rising prices so far prove him right.

There were 101,299 homes sold in the GTA in 2015, a 9.2-per-cent increase compared to 2014, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

The GTA’s sales growth continued this year. In February, 7,621 homes were sold, 21.1 per cent more than in February 2015. The average selling price for all homes rose 14.9 per cent in the region year over year and hit $685,278. In Toronto, the average price of a detached home stands at $1,211,459. “Buying intentions are strong for this year as households continue to see home ownership as an affordable long-term investment,” said TREB president Mark McLean, who is also a manager at Bosley, in a February statement.

Affordable isn’t the word most buyers would use. There are recurring questions about the market’s stability, given growing household debt and the certainty that interest rates will one day increase. Tom Bosley dismisses the fears. Toronto has all the attractions of an international city, he says. Even people who once fled to the suburbs want back in.

He sees a lack of supply as a key source of climbing prices. Land for single-family Toronto homes is growing scarce. At the same time, fewer people can afford to move, for example, from semi-detached homes to detached ones. More people stay put, supply remains low, nerve-racking bidding wars break out and prices keep going up.

“I’ve got three people looking for semis in North Toronto,” says Bosley’s daughter, Christan, an agent with the firm, “and I can tell you there has not been a livable one on the market in the last four months that’s sold for less than $1.1 million. It’s crazy.”

Residential properties weren’t part of the business plan when Bosley’s grandfather opened his shop on Adelaide St. in 1928. The company managed commercial properties.

Homes became part of the portfolio in 1953, when William’s sons, Raymond and Murray, bought the company. Even then, much of the business involved buying out homeowners or landowners to assemble large tracts of land for clients with big plans. They assembled land for the building of Toronto City Hall, the downtown Bank of Nova Scotia and the Ford plant in Oakville.

Thomas Bosley, Raymond’s son, joined the business in 1968. He started as an appraiser of commercial properties. He hated the work. It was all facts and figures with little human interaction. He wasn’t crazy about his salary, either, just $5,000 a year.

In the mid-1970s, Bosley cut a deal with his father: he would give up his salary, move to the Yonge-Lawrence office, and live strictly off commissions he made on house sales. In his first month, he earned $12,000.

“That’s when I went, ‘Now I know what this is about,’” he says.

By 1983, the company had 300 salespeople in nine offices in the GTA. But branches outside Toronto were bleeding. Perhaps incredibly for a real estate company, it owned none of the buildings that housed its branches. And a bank loan without collateral was impossible.

VINCE TALOTTA

Some 250 agents work as independent contractors under the Bosley banner, last year making $1.3 billion worth of transactions.

Bosley went to his father and uncle with an ultimatum of sorts. He would buy the company by paying off its debt. If they refused, he would strike out on his own.

“My uncle, who basically ran the business, recognized that I was the general manager of the residential division and if I left everybody left with me,” Bosley says. “And so they got their act together and that’s how I ended up buying this.”

Today, Bosley Real Estate owns all but one of the buildings that house its seven branches — five in Toronto, one in Jordan (near St. Catharines) and another in Niagara-on-the-Lake.

Some 250 real estate agents work as independent contractors, with no benefits, under the Bosley banner. They pay a sliding percentage of their property transactions to the company — the more they make, the less they pay. In return they get the backing of a full-service company, including receptionists, in-house mortgage brokers and an eight-week training course. Agents who do little business eventually get “a nudge out the door,” Christan says.

Last year, Bosley realtors were involved in the buying or selling of 1,500 properties.

“My retirement is guaranteed,” Bosley says.

The perils of being the boss’s daughter

It goes without saying that the continued existence of family-owned firms, no matter how successful, depends entirely on offspring. Nine years ago, Thomas Bosley decided to test the intentions of his.

His wife’s son from a previous marriage worked on Bay Street and made clear his career wasn’t in real estate.

Bosley’s daughter, Christan, was in university, thinking of possibly becoming a lawyer and majoring in psychology and criminology — “perfect for a real estate agent,” her dad says.

“My dad tricked me,” says Christan. “He told me he was selling the company to Royal LePage and I had such a strong reaction that I thought I’d better take my (realtor’s) licence. To this day, I’m sure he was just testing me.”

By the time Christan started selling real estate in 2007, her mother, Ann, had been company vice-president for 14 years. Ann and her husband made sure Christan paid her dues.

COLE BURSTON FOR THE TORONTO STAR

A vintage sign for the family firm, founded in 1928.

“So, because I’m the boss’s daughter, what did they do? They made an example of me: I had to sit in the middle of the floor with 25 other agents, listening to me make cold calls,” Christan says, referring to the pitching of services to randomly called homeowners.

“I’m 22 years old, I’m nervous making cold calls in the first place; now I have to do it with 25 people watching me. It was pretty brutal. But, you know, you get used to it,” she adds, as her father chuckles.

Christan is now one of the company’s top realtors. She recently teamed up with another realtor and they share commissions for all new clients equally. But success has not made life at the office any easier as the boss’s daughter.

“Social relationships with your colleagues don’t happen, ever,” she says. “Everybody looks at you very differently and you have to work that much harder to prove the fact that you’re successful because you’re successful and not because Mommy and Daddy hand you leads.”

Christan, who has a broker’s licence, wants to one day take over the company. But her father’s real intentions, despite the test he threw at her, remain a mystery.

“He’s so cagey,” she says, sitting at a conference table with her parents. “Try to find out what he’s going to do with this company — cagey, cagey, cagey.”

Ann, at 65, is slowly relinquishing her duties and spending more time at her vacation home in South Carolina. But Thomas is harder to pin down, suggesting at one point that he will let go of the reins, but adding at another, “I don’t think I will ever retire.”

In any event, Ann says, Christan isn’t ready because she has yet to manage one of the company’s branches. “The salespeople,” Ann adds, “would very quickly lose respect for her: ‘Wait a minute, kid, what branch did you manage?’”

125 Cheltenham Ave., near Lawrence and Bayview Aves., is the house where Tom Bosley grew up. His father, Raymond, bought it in the 1940s for $6,000. Records show that in 1981, the property was assessed at $389,000. In 2000, it was sold for $1.25 million. And now it's on the market again — asking price: $2.695 million

“It’s kind of funny that she talks like this,” Christan replies. “We have this argument frequently because our (company) general manager actually disagrees with your comment.”

There’s also the chance a rival company will make Bosley a buyout offer he can’t refuse.

“I get approached all the time,” he says. “But no one has wanted to write a cheque yet, so there’s really no consideration of it.”

Christan says she won’t begrudge her parents if they decide to cash in on the company they built. Besides, she doesn’t expect life at the top will be easy, no matter how healthy the family firm is today.

“There’s an immense amount of pressure, being the fourth generation,” Christan says. “Do I want to take it over and tank it in the next five years? No. I mean, there’s a lot of pressure!”

A Bosley family tree

• William H. Bosley was born in 1889 in Somerset, England. He came to Toronto at 23 and worked in the CP Railway yards for $40 a month. In 1920, he helped set up the Toronto Real Estate Board and, later, the Ontario Real Estate Association. His company, founded in 1928, was for decades based at 27 Wellesley St. E. In WWII, he was a special adviser on land acquisitions for the Defence Department. He also chaired the Toronto Harbour Commissioners (now PortsToronto). He died in 1965.

COLE BURSTON FOR THE TORONTO STAR

The company's founder, William H. Bosley.

• Murray Bosley, William’s eldest son, was born in 1915. A story in the Toronto Daily Star called him the “youngest realtor in Canada” when, at 14, the Toronto Real Estate Board made him a member. He was an executive with a Crown corporation that built affordable housing for war workers and veterans, before serving as an artillery officer in Europe. He and his brother, Raymond, bought his father’s real estate company in 1953. In the early 1970s, he campaigned to save Union Station. He died in 2013.

• Raymond Bosley was born in 1921. He served as a lieutenant in the Second World War, became president of the Toronto Real Estate Board in 1958 and, later, president of the family firm. “He taught me compassion and ethical dealing,” says his son, Thomas. Raymond died in 2013.

Murray, left, and Raymond Bosley.

• Thomas Bosley, 68, won’t say how big the debt was when he took over the family firm in 1985. He bought his first home in 1976 for $56,000, with a $1,000 down payment, then renovated it himself and sold it nine months later for $65,000. He bought and sold eight more homes for a profit before marrying and settling into a North Toronto home for 26 years.

• Ann Bosley, 65, began at Bosley Real Estate as a receptionist. She married Thomas in 1983, went on to build the company’s most successful branch and set up the training course for new realtors. She has been president of both the Toronto Real Estate Board and the Canadian Real Estate Association. “The better the sales agent, the easier they make it look,” she says. “So you are constantly fighting clients who think your job is a piece of cake.”

• Christan Bosley, 30, is the mother of a 14-month-old boy. Her husband is an appraiser of commercial properties at a different firm. She got her first taste of real estate during her final year at Western. “I was lucky enough to have an inheritance and I figured I could be immature and go to Europe and blow it and have the time of my life, or I could save my sanity and move out,” she says, laughing. “So I bought a condo.” Three properties later, she lives near her parents in North Toronto.

COLE BURSTON FOR THE TORONTO STAR

Ann, Christan and Thomas Bosley outside their midtown office.

 

 

In an Infographic...

Knock-knock. Who's there? Scarce listings. Scarce listings who? Scarce listings are causing multiple offers and sharp price increases. Ok, so we are missing the usual snappy opening this week but the lack of available listings has us, and our buyer clients, in a bit of a bad mood. Even with near record low inventory levels, sales have been extremely brisk. The frenzy of activity isn't just localized in the downtown core either. As the Globe and Mail recently reported, suburban homes across the GTA are experiencing a similar fate. The trifecta of low interest rates, strong employment and immigration are driving accelerated price growth across the region. As the Globe reports 'nearly half of all job growth and 75% of immigration' is happening in the 905.

Available freehold listings dropped 35% last week, falling to a 3 week low. Sales however have remained strong, improving by 7.8%. Fewer homes on the market and strong demand has led to a 10% increase in multiple offers over the week, to 69.3%. This was most noticeable in the $700k to $1.5m price range in the east and west core where a remarkable 90% of homes sold over asking. Our view is that month over month price gains will continue to cruise at double digit rates for the foreseeable future.

We believe that the condo sector may have finally come to the realization that its value lies more with end users who were unable to buy freehold homes. Despite an almost 16% decline in listings across the 416, sales have continued to strengthen registering a 3% increase over the previous week. The outstanding factor that proves the condo market's health has to be the percentage of sales at or above the list price, currently sitting at 34%, the highest percentage ever.

Welcome to the Oscar Edition of the weekly Bosley Market Insight. Last week, like a true Cinderella story, the spring market kicked into high gear with more strength than double-sided tape in an Oscar dress. Clearly The Force Awakens thanks to a strong increase in The Revenant listings. Unless you’ve been living like The Martian or happen to be Straight Outta Compton you probably have missed the fact that the real estate market is under The Spotlight at this time of year. We would be remiss not to welcome back those who have been sitting on the sidelines, especially those living in a Room on Fury Road. So it gives us great Joy to give you the latest news.

After an absence of several weeks, freehold resale listings are starting to move in a positive direction, increasing by 32.1% last week. The sweet spot for new listings across the entire core of the city is in the $700k to $1.5m range which increased nearly 60%, while sales in this category also saw tremendous activity, jumping 83%. What is interesting to note about the market is that cooler heads tend to prevail with only 60% of sales being recorded at or above the list price (compared to 76% a year ago).

The condo sector continues its positive momentum as well. Resale listings improved 21.8% last week, primarily in the central core, while sales increased by 33.5%. The majority of listings (45%) and sales (49%) fell into the $400k to $700k price range. This tends to be the price range where freehold home buyers are finding success in the search for their first home. Overall, the health of the condo market rests in the number of units selling at or above the list price. Last week that number was 25.1%.

There is no question in our minds that the mild winter has moved the spring market well into February. One problem still exists however...Sellers didn't get the memo. Like most of last year we continue to struggle with low inventories, a situation that has many puzzled. There is some strength to the arguement that economic uncertainty plays a part in the lack of listings but that seems to be a national concern rather than a local issue. Affordability seems more likely as the culprit within the freehold sector, as the average home across the GTA has increased over $100,000 in the last year.

Despite a continued increase of listings over the last few weeks it is important to note that overall listings for freehold homes are down significantly from last year at this time despite the influences of a brutal winter of polar vortexes.  Sales are marginally higher than a year ago but the percentage of sales at or over the list price is somewhat lower hinting at the idea that while inventories are down, listing prices are generally being set closer to market value. One notable market segment is the $700K-$1.5M segment in the central core where last week all sixteen sales sold above the list price.

We believe the condominium sector is filling in the gaps left by an ever appreciating freehold market. While listing inventory levels are similar to those recorded one year ago it is clear, by the 22% increase in sales, that the downtown core is seeing a Manhattanization of the housing stock. Increasing demand continues to push condo values higher as well as the number of suites selling at or over the list price (now sitting at 29.1% compared to 13.7% a year ago).

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

Last week we waited in anticipation for an advanced weather prediction from nothing less than a couple of famous rodents. Ground Hog Day was a split decision but it made us wonder if we could use a similar technique for predicting the exact moment the spring market hits. Our suggestion is to put a green bin out on the sidewalk to see how the local racoons react. A knocked over bin indicates the spring market has started but if it’s frozen to the ground we have to wait another two weeks. Thoughts?

In the freehold resale market there is a strong indication that spring has sprung. Last week listings were up 54% from the previous week while sales climbed 40%. Typical of a sudden jump in new listings there is a lag of about a week before we see an uptick in sales. This is mainly due to the holdback period. While only 49% of existing homes sold at or above the list price we expect that percentage to improve significantly over the coming weeks. While the hottest area has been the east core, particularly in the mid-range price point, last week it was the west core that was the star with over 65% of properties sold at or above the list price.

The condominium sector may end up being the shining light of Toronto’s real estate market. Last week, new listings edged up 15% (almost entirely from the central core) while the number of sales improved by a remarkable 40%.  What is more interesting is that sales of suites at or above the list price rose from an already healthy 22.4% to a near all-time high of 28.9%. In both the east and west core of the city, there were almost as many sales as new listings. (35 to 37 units).

It’s  hard to believe that we are already one month into 2016. This winter is already the second warmest on record thanks to our friend El Nino. In real estate terms, mild winters are a blessing for those intrepid Realtors. It means no snow drifts to climb over, no hunting for parking spots while out showing and less layers to wear. Of course this would all be great if there were properties to show but our research indicates that listings in both the freehold and condo sector have backed off substantially from one year ago while demand has not wavered.

In the freehold sector, listings continue to be a source of concern. One year ago there were 221 new listings compared to just 120 this year. Sales on the other hand are brisk. Our records indicate 115 sales last week compared to a mere 74 for the same period last year. It is interesting to note that last year only about 53% of homes sold at or above asking while this year that percentage has climbed to 66.7. The hottest area was the east core where nearly 90% of homes sold at or over the asking price.

A similar market exists in the resale condominium sector. Listings are off about 20% while sales are up by 32% from one year ago. Last year sales at or over the list price were a very respectable 18.9% while this year we are reporting 22.4%. While the number of new listings has remained stable in the east and west, there is a noticeable drop in the central core, proving once again that demand still exists for central condos.

It’s been a few weeks since we last reported and this being the beginning of a brand new year we wanted to get off to an early AND fresh start. Here’s a recap of what we are all about…Our market insights give you a quick snapshot of what’s happening in the core neighbourhoods of the city. We track listings and sales of homes and condos from the 401 to the lake and stretch as far east as the Beaches and as far west as Bloor West Village.  To truly understand and gauge the temperature of the real estate market in Toronto we scour the data available to us and record key metrics such as the number of properties in various price ranges and how many are being traded at or above the list price. The research is extensive and time consuming but provides our agents and their clients with the knowledge they need to make informed decisions.  Today is the starting point on a year-long journey.

In the freehold sector, listings are currently at an all-time low. By comparison, in late May of 2015 we had nearly 500 new listings on the market. Last week we recorded an impossibly low 45. The lack of listings did not deter buyers however. In the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day we recorded 27 sales with just under half of them at or above the list price. In one situation we saw one mid-priced detached home property sell over $200k more than the list price.

Not surprisingly, the condominium market is also experiencing low listing activity. Just 153 properties were listed throughout the core of the city last week. A surprising 14% of the 68 condos that sold traded at or above the list price. We are well off the record number of listings that we will see at the height of the market but even with low levels of existing listings there are plenty of opportunities to find excellent end user or investment suites.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 240 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

Last week’s real estate market update could best be described by the simple phrase “no news is good news”. Across the downtown core it appears that while listings are inching lower, there is still plenty of appetite for buying a home. Give it time though. In talking with our agents we know that many buyers are waiting patiently for the spring market. In a few months pent up demand will return and buying a home in Toronto will look like Black Friday at a big box store in the United States.

Despite more resale homes coming on the market in the central core, the east and west brought the overall number of listings down by 3% last week. Sales also dropped from 141 units in the previous week to 133 units; however, we are still reporting that over 42% of transactions took place at or above the list price, which is consistent with previous years. There are clear indications that on a year-over-year basis we are still well ahead of 2014.

Like the freehold sector, the condominium counterpart is behaving in a similar manner. Listings are down by 12% while sales are down by 7%. That 5% difference reflects the continued health of the condo market in Toronto. Additionally the number of sales at or above the list price has backed off less than 1% from the previous week, coming in at a respectable 19.4%.

Is it the last hooray or the last hurrah?  Either way, we're entering that phase now...

After a brief dip a few weeks ago, the number of new listings in both the freehold and condo sectors jumped last week. While this increase is still much lower than historical averages it forces the question…what gives? The simplest answer is that we are witnessing the last hooray before the listing taps start to close over the winter holidays.

While we recorded a healthy 41.6% increase in available listings in the freehold sector it is interesting to note that there are 27% fewer listings on the market compared to the same week one year ago. Having fewer listings hasn’t cooled the buying side. In fact, sales are greater than what were recorded in 2014 and the number of sales at or above the list price is slightly higher than the past year (49% compared to 45%). Of notable interest is the significant increase of listings in the ultra-high end market ($3M+) which climbed from 23 to 44 available listings last week in the central core bringing the total number of listings in this price category to 159.

At this point in the year, it’s fair to say that the condominium sector is the favourite child of Toronto’s real estate market. Compared to last year there are only 20 more condos available for sale across all price points but it is the sales numbers that truly astound. Last year at this time we recorded just 93 sales compared to the 205 sales that happened across Toronto’s core neighbourhoods last week. Of those sales, 20.5% happened at or above the list price. Wow!

With listings in both the freehold and condo sectors slowing down as we near the end of the month, the debate rages on. Should buyers wait until the New Year to purchase a new home or jump into the market now? There are different points of view on this topic. If you wait there will be more choice BUT you will be competing with all the other buyers who are also waiting for the spring market. More buyers bidding on the same home will drive prices higher. If you buy now there is less choice but fewer buyers. Naturally, life is less complicated as a seller. 

As expected, new freehold listings were down last week.  Our target prediction was outshot as we saw listings cut in half in the downtown core.  The number of recorded sales however was only down 26.6% and we still saw a high level (53.8%) of those sales happening at or above the list price. While the high-end home seems the most affected by the slowing market there were segments that fared very well. They included the $700k to $1.5m price range in the central core and the $400k to $700k price range in both the east and west cores.

The condo sector is experiencing similar traits as the freehold sector however not nearly as obvious. Listings have backed off by 46% however sales only dipped by 20%. Of those sales, 16.7% happened at or above the list price. Clearly the condo sector has held its own throughout 2015 and with fewer new condo completions on the horizon for 2016 as well as continued strength in the freehold sector, we believe that this segment of Toronto’s real estate market will remain strong going into 2016.

With no distractions to stand in our way for at least the next month we knew that we would see a return to a more traditional fall market. Things got off on the right foot two weeks ago and the steady pace of more listings and sales has continued just as we predicted. With two months left in 2015 there is still plenty of transactions on the horizon and our research shows there are plenty of buyers waiting for the perfect home.

Freehold listings are up for the third week in a row reaching just shy of 400 units in the downtown core.  The single biggest growth segment being in the $1.5M- $3M price range in the central core. Overall, this represents just 4.5% fewer listings than the same week one year ago. While sales are also trending 8.7% higher than the previous week they aren’t as high as they were last year (200 compared to 229). Homes trading at or above the list price is at a very respectable 55%, well within the range we have seen for a strong fall market.

Following three straight weeks of falling resale condominium listings last week we witnessed a 14.4% spike in available units. The number of sales remained unchanged from the previous week (216) and the percentage of units sold at or above the list price was a very healthy 23.1%. The hot spot of the week was the $400k-$700k segment in the east core where over half the units sold at or above the list price. Overall, sales are up 13.1% more than a year ago.

While the Blue Jays post season run came to a halt last week Toronto’s real estate market is having a run of its own.  Now that the election is over, and the world DIDN’T end, Sellers can go back to selling and Buyers can go back to buying…..and buying they did….in spades. Unless you count Halloween as a significant event, we should see a steady trading pace for the next few weeks.

Listings improved slightly in the freehold sector last week. While demand is still extremely high, the 3% increase in available listings caused a significant rise in multiple offers last week moving from a low of 36% two weeks ago to nearly 59% last week. The number of sales shot up 63% from 113 to 184 units in the downtown core. The hot district shifted back to the east core where over 70% of homes traded at or above the list price.

Listings in the resale condominium sector are down for the third week in a row. Inventory of condo listings has not been this low since February 20th, 2015 (with the exception of one week in late August). Sales on the other hand jumped by nearly fifty units since last week to 216. Sales at or above the list price now hovers at 24.1% with the $700k-$1.5m range in the central core being the hot spot last week by registering 6 out of 18 sales at or above the list price.

In our latest Market Insight we suggested that the reason listings were down was a reaction to the upcoming Federal Election. While there is little reason to believe that, whatever the outcome, home prices would be adversely affected, we wanted to prove that the theory was sound. We have been keeping records on downtown Toronto real estate for just over three years but only through one other election, that being last year’s municipal election which took place on October 27th. We went back to the beginning of October 2014 and discovered that freehold listings decreased by 31% over the previous week while sales remained steady. The following week, October 17th, freehold listings backed off another 17% and sales slowed. By the next week the polls were reporting a clear lead for Mayor Tory and with the election essentially a fait accompli listings improved by 8% and sales shot up 64%. Immediately after the election, both in terms of listings and sales, activity returned to normal levels. 

According to Anthony Codling, housing analyst at the broker Jefferies, who has studied the last seven UK elections; “On average, and when compared to the level of transactions at the time of an election, transactions have been higher in the period six to 12 months prior to and one to six months after an election but the four months immediately preceding elections have typically seen housing transactions 3% to 8% below the level seen at the time of an election.  In our view, this confirms what we believe many intuitively believe; that the uncertainty regarding elections will delay a prospective homeowner’s decision to purchase a home.”

In the freehold sector, we have further proof of the theory. Listings again have dropped by another 3% while the number of sales remained unchanged. It is interesting to note that sales at or above the list price decreased from 70.6% two weeks ago to 62.5% last week, so while there are still plenty of buyers in the market they appear to have calmer heads come offer night. The west core continues its streak as the hot neighbourhood with more listings and more sales than the usually hot East core.

The condominium resale market remained relatively unchanged in terms of listings last week however sales improved for the fourth straight week. While last week’s growth was a more moderate 4% over the previous week it does show the continued strength of this segment of the overall Toronto real estate market. Even with 20.9% of those sales taking place at or above the list price, it is nowhere near the record level of 31.6% set the previous week.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 240 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.