Corinne McCabe , Broker

Canada’s housing market isn’t melting down as you’ve been led to think.

Housing markets are unique for their location, type, quality, and size, so a decline in the average housing price is different from a decline in the price of an average house, which sometimes makes it difficult to decide whether it’s the right time to buy or sell. Adding to the confusion is that some metrics suggest prices are falling and others show an increase, though, overall, housing sales are down significantly compared to the peak activity in February, while average prices are down to a lesser extent.

 Let’s have a look at the numbers in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) as an example to clarify how markets are moving. Sales in the GTA were down to 5,627 units in August, a year-over-year decline of 34.2 percent, while the average house price rose by a tiny 0.9 percent, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data.

But TRREB’s quality-and size-adjusted Home Price Index (HPI) is a better indicator of price movements, because smaller and lower-priced homes might sell more frequently during slowdowns, which can lower the average price.

 Compared to August last year, the HPI was up 8.9 percent, which seems a lot different from the dismal-sounding newspaper headlines and economist forecasts. What gives? It appears a lot depends upon how the metrics are generated. For example, instead of comparing current sales and prices with those from the same period a year ago, you could make the peak housing sales activity in March 2022 the benchmark. Any comparison with March will exaggerate the declines.

 Sales in the GTA in August were down 48.3 percent from the peak sales observed in March, a much more significant decline than the 34.2 percent drop from August last year. Similarly, average prices in August, not adjusted for quality or size, were down 18 percent from the peak prices observed in February.

So, are housing prices declining or climbing then? The answer depends upon perspective. If, say, someone bought a house at the peak of the housing market in February and is trying to sell the same property today, they are likely to experience a noticeable loss. However, most homebuyers stay at the same place for longer than just a few months.

Even the significant decline in housing sales relative to the peak in February hides the fact that sales activity in lower-priced homes has picked up since then. The number of homes sold for less than $600,000 in the GTA has increased by almost 70 percent since February, while sales for homes sold for more than $1.5 million declined by 71 percent.

 Total sales volume in 2022 will clearly be considerably less than observed last year. Housing experts attribute the decline to the increase in the cost of borrowing resulting from the steep rise in mortgage rates. But what is ignored in such pronouncements is a phenomenon known as the “forward buy,” where consumers move up their purchases to benefit from something. Last year’s ultra-low mortgage rates were partly responsible for the extraordinary sales volume because many households likely advanced their home purchase from 2022 to 2021, thereby boosting sales.

Housing sales in the GTA jumped by 28 percent in 2021 from the year before, reaching an all-time high of 121,642. Overall, over 100,000 more sales were recorded in 2021 by the Multiple Listing Service in Canada than the long-term annual average. The decline in sales in 2022 is partly because some of this year’s sales were lost to last year.

 These more nuanced statistics should help us realize that Canada is not experiencing a meltdown in housing markets. The magnitude of sale and price movements is in the expected range. And since the average number of days a property is on the market increased to 22 in August from 8 in February, buyers in the GTA can now take their time deciding. The days of multiple offers and rapid sales are over, at least for now, which should be good news for homebuyers.

Sales of new condominiums in the greater Toronto area have declined by 19 percent in the second quarter of this year, while the average price per square foot reached a record high of $1,453, according to the latest report from real estate consulting firm Urbanation Inc.

 A total of 6,792 new condo units sold in Q2 of 2022, plummeting 24 percent compared to a year ago. Sales did however remain above the 10-year average. The drop in buying activity caused 11,703 new condo units to remain unsold. While new condo purchases slowed, the cost per square foot of these units surged by 20 percent on an annual basis, reaching an all-time high.

 Several driving factors were behind the price spike, including soaring construction costs, labour shortages, and higher-priced projects, according to the report. Looking ahead, rising interest rates and delayed approval timelines for projects will likely keep the cost of new condos elevated.

 “Prices are expected to hold firm amid low inventory and high development costs,” Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation said in a press release on Tuesday. “The strength in the rental market and shift in demand towardsmore affordable ownership options should provide support for condominium activity as the market works through the effects of higher interest rates.”

The supply of presale condo units reached the third highest volume on record with 9,924 units to hit the market in Q2. The recent pullback in buying activity however has caused many projects to cancel or delay future launch plans. 

The data shows there were 35,000 new condo units anticipated to come to market for the region in 2022. In the first half of this year, roughly 16,000 units have launched and 10,000 more are expected, leaving 10,000 units on hold. Thisis a sign that the broader real estate slowdown has spread to the preconstruction market, where purchases are seenas bets on future housing because buyers wait years for their properties to be built.

Pre-construction buyers, the majority of whom are investors, have been spooked by the jump in interest rates even though they do not immediately need mortgages when they buy pre-construction condos. Typically, a 20-per-centdown payment is required to secure a pre-construction unit. The buyer pays the remainder after the condo is built.

 Urbanation estimates that, in the second half of this year, buyers of newly completed condos trying to recoup their expenses through rental income will face an average monthly shortfall of $1.06 per square foot, or the equivalent of nearly $700 per month on a 650-square-foot unit. By 2026, Urbanation predicts, that shortfall, or negative cash flow, will amount to $1.87 per square foot.