Corinne McCabe , Broker

The Toronto region had its fourth consecutive month of record sales volumes in October with 10,563 homes sold, up 25% from October 2019 and the Toronto Real Estate Board is forecasting record or near-record sales to continue through the balance of the year. The average sale price for the GTA was up 13.7% to $968,318 and for the City of Toronto it was up 10.8% to $1,025,925. Detached homes led the way, with sales up 33.9% and an average sale price of $1,204,844, an increase of 14.8%.

New listings for all categories of homes rose to 17,802 across the GTA, up 36% from October 2019. Condo listings more than doubled to 6,193, compared to October 2019. Sales of condominium apartments fell 8.5% in the City of Toronto compared to the same month in 2019, with prices up just .8% to $668,161. Active listings are up 158% in Toronto to 5,719 units. As the pandemic slowed economic development and halted tourism in the city, the short and long-term rental income many investors relied upon dried up. If you are looking to buy a condo it’s a buyer’s market now and you will benefit from more choice available.

The strongest gains across all re-sale housing categories occurred in the 905 communities outside Toronto, where buyers can often afford a little more space. Suburban areas that once lagged desirable city addresses are now roaring hot as home buyers wearied by lockdowns seek bigger yards and larger living spaces. Tight downtown condo markets that previously commanded expensive rents are now thick with supply. And the flow of immigrants that typically fuel demand for housing of all types has slowed to a trickle.

Canadian real estate prices are growing at a breakneck speed. More homes were sold in July than any other month on record, with data going back more than 40 years. The performance of the housing market during this pandemic recession has been a big surprise. The price of a typical home across Canada reached $637,600 in July, a 7.56% increase compared to the same month last year. Canadian real estate buyers are shrugging off the pandemic, as a temporary inconvenience. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows prices made a huge increase, not just in known “hot” markets like Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal but in almost every real estate market across Canada.

The massive increases this year represents a significant portion of gains made over the past 3 years. Montreal real estate prices are up 14.04% in July, compared to last year - making up almost half of the 29.21% increase made over the past 3 years. Toronto’s 10.11% increase over the past 12-months, contrasts with a 14.51% increase over the past 3 years. In Vancouver, prices increased 4.83% over the past 12-months, but just 1.61% over the past 3 years. For Toronto, this means the past year has seen growth twice as fast as the previous two years.

Sales have also been helped by low mortgage rates with rates for five-year fixed-rate mortgages being offered at less than two percent. The robust price growth right across the country, comes even as indicators like employment, rental rates, and immigration fall. When prices rise across the board despite a breakdown of these indicators, its almost certainly a result of too much easy credit.

The real estate market remains hot! July was a record-breaking month for real estate as the GTA reported 11,081 sales - a 29.5% increase over July 2019 and a new record for the month of July. It’s hard to believe we are in a pandemic and the numbers for July are mind boggling. 
We are seeing the results of pent up activity from both buyers and sellers, that has been accumulating over that last few months. Low interest rates and limited overall supply are also increasing competition across our market. Here are some of the results for July: 

AVERAGE SALE PRICE FOR TORONTO - $1,017,320

Up 21% from $839,943 – July 2019

AVERAGE DETACHED FOR TORONTO - $1,541,003

Up 25% from $1,227,301 – July 2019

AVERAGE SEMI-DETACHED FOR TORONTO - $1,181,014

Up 20% from $981,802 -July 2019

AVERAGE CONDO PRICE TORONTO - $682,999

Up 8.8% compared to $627,927 - July2019

NEW LISTINGS - 17,956

Up 24% compared to 14,393 – July 2019

NUMBER OF SALES - 11,081

Up 29.5% compared to 8,595 – July 2019

Price growth was strongest for low-rise home types, notably within the City of Toronto. Despite more balanced market conditions in the condo market, year-over-year price growth remained in the high single digits. We also experienced stronger sales growth in the more expensive detached market sector, which helps explain why the overall average selling price was high. The real estate board has said that its original pre-Covid forecast of 10% price growth for 2020 could still be realized, but it all depends on whether we get a second wave of the virus.

The Ontario government has lifted the ban on public open houses effective today in regions entering Stage 3 and Toronto is expected to follow suit by the end of the month. But is this such a good idea? Will sellers allow them? And will buyers attend? And what about the safety of the Realtor? The topic has become a hot one among real estate agents. Many people would attend open houses as a pastime – even if they weren’t planning to buy right away. Open houses were just an easy way to see homes and sometimes viewed as an ineffective way of driving traffic to a property. So far business has been booming in Toronto and the surrounding regions with no open houses. Sales representatives can now market your home effectively using an array of technological tools that can be accessed easily by buyers. Virtual viewings are now mainstream, have increased in popularity and have a much wider audience reach. Statistics show that consumers using virtual tools are more likely to reach out to a Realtor. If agents had been unable to do business maybe open houses would be necessary, but agents and their clients have adapted to the new ways of doing business. Safety first! 

Last week the freehold market recorded a solid 10% increase in new listings, and overall sales were up a whopping 40% from the previous week. Competition for homes is still strong with 63% of all properties selling at or above the list price While this is frustrating buyers across the 416 that same enthusiasm for home ownership is spreading throughout the province, all the way up to cottage country. 

The condo market continues its positive activity. New listings did not change from the previous week, but sales jumped 40%, the largest jump in weeks. The percentage of suites selling at or above the list price is at 37%. The demand is picking up for condos again.

The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) recently retained Nanos Research to do a survey among Ontarians actively in the real estate market. The takeaway was that despite economic uncertainty due to the pandemic, homeownership is seen as a good investment.

Here are some of the results:

• Six in ten Ontarians active in the real estate market consider buying a home a very good investment even in the current environment.

• Four in ten who are active in the housing market say they would be open to buying a house if they could only view it virtually.

• Eight in ten say it would be important to use a Realtor to help with the purchase of their home, and this is consistent across all age groups.

• Six in ten Ontarians who own a home and plan to sell in the next two years are not sure when they will list their home (61%), while 28% say they will list as soon as the pandemic is over, and 11% say they will list in the next few months.

• A majority of Ontarians say being in isolation at home has not changed their view of what they want in their next home (74%), while 26% say it has changed what they want in their next home.

• Nine in ten who own a home and are active in the real estate market report they have not refinanced their home or used a home equity line of credit to cope financially during Covid.

• Residents of the City of Toronto are most likely to report they plan to buy a home in the next two years (59%), and younger Ontarians (18 to 34) are more likely to report they plan to buy (59%), than those 55 plus (23%). Renters are significantly more likely to report  they plan to buy in the next two years (87%) than homeowners (27%).

• Four in ten Ontarians who own their home have taken advantage of the pandemic to renovate, repair or upgrade their home. Asked for the approximate value of the renovations and repairs, $18,960.

Toronto home sales rebounded in June, with the average selling price up 12% from the same month last year to $1,022,138. (first time we have surpassed $1 million) For the GTA region the average price of a home hit $930,869 also up 12%. Competition is heating up again with multiple offers and bids well over asking prices. Home buyers were forced to put their purchases on hold when the pandemic hit in March. Now that Ontario and Toronto are easing restrictions, buyers have started to pounce. The GTA saw 8,701 homes sold in June, up 84% compared to May and signals suggest that some of that momentum is continuing into July.

In the surrounding suburbs and nearby cities, prices also surged, in part because of demand from Torontonians looking for more space. The strongest price growth for the city of Toronto were the semi-detached homes up 22% from a year ago to an average of $1,287,832 and detached homes up 14.3% to an average of $1,523,770. The condo market also saw a price growth of 5.6% in Toronto, where the average price is now $672,000.

How long will this “catch-up phase” last? Some economists predict this frenzied pace will not last. CHMC said it is too soon to revise its forecast and pointed to a number of risks that could hamper the housing market, including sustained job losses, a slow recovery and a second outbreak of COVID-19 cases leading to another lockdown. The agency had also forecasted a decline in home prices of up to 18 per cent for this year although so far that is not bearing out, with the Toronto region’s housing market on fire. We are still in the early days of recovery, but a gradually improving labour market – (Statistics Canada today posted the economy added nearly one million jobs in June ) and historically low mortgage rates are expected to support a recovery in the second half of 2020, barring any setbacks. 

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Open houses have been suspended throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and while real estate services were declared essential and have continued uninterrupted, agents have innovating methods for home-showings like Facebook Live, 3-D video tours, Zoom and a good portion of real estate transactions including paperwork occurs electronically. Consumers are adapting during this extraordinary time, and their willingness to embrace new tools tells us that the Canadian dream of home ownership remains strong, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Though there has been a drop in listings, the prices in the GTA have largely been unaffected by the global pandemic so far. Nearly half of Ontarians who plan to buy a home in the next two years say that they are willing to consider going ahead with a purchase even if they can only view the property virtually, according to a new poll commissioned by the Ontario Real Estate Association. The poll also revealed that there is a portion of prospective sellers that have held off on listing their properties for sale due to COVID-19, but 54 per cent of them are willing to consider virtual showings or somewhat open to the idea.

The poll conducted by Nanos Research on behalf of the OREA found that 48.9 per cent of prospective buyers are either open or somewhat open to buying a house virtually compared to 46.6 per cent who say that they are not open to the idea. Meanwhile, about 26 per cent said that they would buy a home as soon as the pandemic concludes. About 61 per cent of prospective buyers and sellers, meanwhile, said that the pandemic did not have an impact on their decisions to list or buy properties. 

Meanwhile, last week we saw another 23% jump in freehold listings and a slight increase in sales but of those, 75% sold at or above the asking price. The condo sector also saw a 29% increase in listings and the sales were up 18% with 42% of those selling at or above the list price. While continued tightening of mortgage lending continues, it has not put a damper on the market.

In the early stages of the lockdown most of us where in a state of shock. That has changed as time has gone on. People now realize it will not be the same moving forward, so we are starting to plan for life after the lockdown.

Toronto real estate sale numbers may be down overall, but homes in certain neighbourhoods of the city are attracting avid interest. This week we know of a couple of properties that went wild. A two-bedroom semi in Danforth Village listed at $799K attracted 12 offers and a detached in prime Riverdale listed at $1.8M got 8 bully offers. The hottest-selling price sector in April was the $750,000-$999,000 range for freeholds, which includes semis and townhouses. With 184 sales, it was three times higher than the next price tier which is between $1 million and $1.25 million that saw 61 transactions.

The lowest point for sales was the week ending April 11, with 557 sales in the Toronto region, but the numbers have steadily increased since, to 909 in the first week of May. That is still half of what the sales were in mid-March, but it does represent 63-per-cent growth since the recent lockdown shock. Because active listings continue to decline, the competition for the few houses out there seems to be supporting prices. 

It’s hard to see it now but the dust will settle, and we will be left with a new world to navigate for our clients. We do know that whatever the outcome, it will be different than it was before and there is no going back. The pandemic will leave behind the largest consumer shift in world history. People will spend differently, people will have different tolerance levels for risk, and people will need to transact real estate.

Awh…the month of May when spring gradually blooms into summer and finally some good news to report. Some economists apparently predict home prices to rise 6% this year and we can expect to see rapid price growth once the outbreak passes, several recent forecasts have predicted, even amid massive job losses. Despite a steep drop in sales this year, the average home price in Canada will be 6.1% higher at the end of this year than it was a year earlier, TD Bank said in a forecast issued this week.

Given that incomes are unlikely to rise much during this crisis, affordability will deteriorate when you look at house prices. Sales may be falling, but the supply of homes on the market is falling with them which means the market balance isn’t shifting much. The country won’t see a sudden rush of people who need to sell their homes quickly, thanks to the banks’ new mortgage deferral programs.

And what about the millions of Canadians who have lost work in this crisis? Won’t this affect house prices? Economists think that won’t have as much impact on the housing market as one would think, because, they say the jobs lost in this crisis have disproportionately affected people in service industries ― think customer service reps and Starbucks baristas ― and these people overwhelmingly tend to rent.

TD’s forecast sees Toronto house prices rising 7.8% this year, compared to last year, while Vancouver will see 4.7% growth. Things will look worse out west, TD predicted, where the oil slump will lead to a 4.7% price decline in Alberta. Sales are poised to plunge at a historic pace in April, while gradually recovering in subsequent months as buyers remain cautious, the report states. “We think this recession is going to be deep but quick, and the economy will recover quite quickly as soon as we substantially get through the health crisis”, said chief economist Peter Norman for The Altus Group.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen many changes to our daily routines as a result of COVID-19. We at Bosley feel it’s our duty to give back to the community we love so dearly in whatever way we can, so we’re coming to you! We have gathered together a group of volunteer agents who are available to help you with deliveries, whether it be groceries, or any drug store need. Just give us a call at 416-530-1100 and ask for Mary and we will get right on it to help you. Nothing about this time is normal and we’ve abandoned trying to make it so. But we are still reaching for little things that offer support.

We’re only beginning to understand the destructive nature of COVID-19 and the way this pandemic will transform how we work and live together. We do understand, however, that the need to social distance from each other to curb this pandemic is particularly problematic when making the biggest purchase or sale of your life; this decision requires a high level of trust and a high level of interaction and asking you to reduce face time with an agent is a lot to ask. 

Bosley Real Estate is one of the brokerages participating in the growing practice of requiring buyers, sellers and service providers to acknowledge the risks to personal health that arise from showing and visiting the property during this pandemic. All sales representatives are dedicated to participating in the global, national and local efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Following the mandate from our government and regulatory agencies, we have pared back our offices and have implemented strict policies to protect both our communities and agents. We have done this, however, without compromising our ability to serve.

We are in uncertain times today, but the values - trust, integrity, knowledge and discretion, that has defined Bosley Real Estate for ninety-two years remains unchanged. With these values in mind, it is more important than ever that we continue to observe the COVID-19 restrictions so that lives are saved, communities are maintained and, eventually, business as usual will be an option.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Stocks have fallen hard in the last couple of weeks, so does that mean Toronto Real Estate is the new gold? Sales of houses and condos for the first week in March were up 47% over the same period last year and average prices rose 18%. Sales are still strong, there are still plenty of bidding wars, and open houses are still busy. There has also been a sharp decline in interest rates for all kinds of borrowing including mortgage rates. These lower interest rates have sent the mortgage industry into a frenzy, as buyer’s race to take advantage of cheaper loans. A five-year fixed-rate loan is sitting as low as 2.29%, close to the record low of 2.09% offered in November 2016, after oil prices crashed and the central bank had to cut rates to stimulate the economy. But could these rate cuts be a warning sign about a lack of security for jobs and incomes? The one good beacon of hope is the health crisis appears to be fading in China and South Korea, creating the possibility of future positive surprises.

The Toronto Real Estate board announced the stats for the month of February, and it was all positive news. For the City of Toronto, the average sale price was $989,218 up 17% from a year ago. The number of sales were up by 31% and new listings were up 6.6%. Double-digit average rice growth was experienced for most major segments with detached homes leading the way up 14.4% to $1,485,304.

The condo market is still going strong. The average price for a condo in the City of Toronto is up 18% to $722,675 compared to last February which was $612,488. As market conditions tighten, competition between buyers has clearly increased. Last week 71% of condos sold in multiple offers. That’s the highest percentage we have seen in awhile.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Businesses all over the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the Coronavirus’s impact on various markets. Could our real estate market be affected? Toronto was one the first places in Canada to experience Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) related emergencies in 2003. Interestingly, housing sales data from 2003 in Toronto show no apparent signs of suffering. Sales increased in units from the previous year, and similarly the average sale price increased during the same time period. Coronavirus to date has already claimed more lives than SARS did in 2003. The uncertainty about how long the threat will last and how quickly it can be contained will weigh heavily on the markets. Since the epicentre of the breakout is far from Canada, it is probable that the adverse impacts on Canadian markets will be moderate at worst.

The market continues to pick up steam with freehold listings doubling what they were the previous week. The high-end luxury market saw 30 new listings above 3 million dollars come to market last week with the central core leading the way. But the number of sold properties was down 16% week-over-week. Buyers are circling and they are willing to move quickly when they see a property that ticks all the right boxes. There seems to be an exuberance in the office this week and no doubt that the market is starting to take off.

The condo market took a different direction and saw a 21% drop in new listings last week, and no change in the number of condos sold week-over-week. Condo sales continue to sell above their list price with 67% of all sales happening above the asking price. The majority of sales last week were in the $499K to $700K price range, which is an indication that there are plenty of first-time buyers out there.

The government is at it again. On Tuesday they said they would make it easier for some people to get into the housing market by tweaking the mortgage stress test, making it slightly lower for insured loans. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), which regulates banks is expected to extend a new weekly benchmark to uninsured mortgages this spring. It’s a move that could be worrisome because some believe this will fuel prices even more, especially at the lower end of the market where condos are already in short supply. The number of condos available for sale in January was the lowest it’s been in 25 years. A lot of that is due to investors holding onto their units. Condo prices appreciated 15 percent last year.

The number of new listings continued to contract last week but that could be because of the family day holiday. There were 19% fewer listings week over week which created increased competition with 10% more sold properties and of those, 66 per cent sold at or over the asking price. The east core continues to be a hot district which had 24 properties sold and of those 22 sold above the asking price.

The condo market is having the reverse affect. Overall listings were up 13% in the central core last week and the sold numbers were steady week to week and of the condos sold, 64% sold at or over the asking price. Resale condos that were selling for $1000 a square foot downtown a few months ago are now fetching $1,100 or close to $1,200 a square foot in some cases. Meanwhile, condos selling in the preconstruction phase are commanding $1,400 a square foot or more.

Is the Toronto housing market picking up steam at an “uncomfortable” pace that resembles the sky-high gains of 2016? One just has to look at the number of multiple offers and wild bidding wars to know that demand is at an all time high. So what should we expect as we move forward? Hopefully as we start moving into the spring market many agents are anxious to see if listings will become more plentiful especially after this long family weekend. We as realtors continue to do what we always do. We perform our duties and forge ahead. Let us take this weekend to be with family and see what next week brings us. Happy Family Day!

We have been collecting weekly sales data for awhile now and it is often fun to look back a year and compare markets. For instance, last year at this time there were 15% more freehold listings available throughout all neighbourhoods but sold properties were down 55% in 2019 at this time. The number of properties selling at or above the asking price this year is at 62% compared to last year which was 58%.

The resale condo sector is following the same trends. New listings are down 18% than the same period last year but sales are up a whooping 62% more than last year at this time. And the number of condos sold at or above the asking price is still at a high of 62%. The condo market has been traditionally reserved for first-time buyers, but as freehold home ownership becomes less affordable, we expect even more activity in the condo market.

The home sales market continues to boom in January, which traditionally has been a slow time for realtors. According to the stats that were just released for January, we started 2020 where 2019 left off, and that the Toronto and GTA real estate market is showing signs of strength in price and the continuation of a new upward trend. The average selling price for the City of Toronto is up 13.7% to $884,385 compared to a year ago. Again, the problem is the shortage of listings which were down 16%. Even if the volume of transactions remains relatively low in the Toronto area, demand is building. It seems anything coming to market is being snapped up in days. The lack of housing supply is the main reason behind soaring prices in and around Toronto.

This week TD Bank slashed its 5-Year posted mortgage rate used for the stress test to 4.99%, the lowest among Canada's big banks, fueling demand for lower­ priced homes among first time buyers. Last week the number of freehold properties sold, saw no change week-over-week, but a huge influx of new listings hit the market up 65% from the previous week. Hot spot neighbourhoods like Riverdale and Leslieville are eagerlyawaiting more listings to appear with 64% of properties selling at or above the asking price.

The downtown condo market is insane. It seems downtown condos offer a lifestyle that buyers want. Multiple offers and over-asking prices are the norm, but supply is still an issue. The condo market saw a 10% decline in listings last week and sales remained steady with no increase week-to-week. According to the stats that werereleased condo prices have jumped a whooping 15% in the City of Toronto and the surrounding GTA comparedto the same time last year. There are approximately 29,500 condos under construction that are scheduled to be completed this year, surpassing the previous high set in 2014 (21,000).

Wanted! - The desperately low inventory of properties for sale is responsible for the intense competition going on. Buyers fear that prices will escalate even more if they wait. Example 1: A property in Brampton gets an astounding 77 bidders for a rundown detached house and sells for $166,000 over ask. Example 2: A semi­detached in the Junction neighbourhood was listed for $949,000 and 33 offers came in and sold for $470,000 above the asking price. But the craziest one was this week on a property in prime High Park which was listed for $1,299,000 and it received 38 offers and sold for $2,300,000 ! ! ! !

Toronto's job market added 210,000 new jobs in 2019, the largest annual increase on record and wage gains were the strongest since 2008. All this combined with low mortgage rates and early reports of eye-popping sales can spur on buyers, but the buzz can also discourage some buyers who don't want to get carried away in competition. Bottom line ... we need more listings!

In the freehold sector listings continue to be a source of concern as we have indicated above. One year ago, we had 28% more listings than we do today. The good news is that sales were up week-over-week almost 60%. But given the fewer listings the number of homes that sold at or above the asking price remains high at 58%.

The condo market is well on its way to market health again. We saw listings increase 7% week-over-week and compared to the same period last year listings have climbed by 16%. The number of sold condos increased by 27% last week and the increasing demand continues to push the number of units selling at or above the list price to 57%, which points to continued strength in the high-rise market.