Corinne McCabe , Broker

Knock-knock. Who's there? Scarce listings. Scarce listings who? Scarce listings are causing multiple offers and sharp price increases. Ok, so we are missing the usual snappy opening this week but the lack of available listings has us, and our buyer clients, in a bit of a bad mood. Even with near record low inventory levels, sales have been extremely brisk. The frenzy of activity isn't just localized in the downtown core either. As the Globe and Mail recently reported, suburban homes across the GTA are experiencing a similar fate. The trifecta of low interest rates, strong employment and immigration are driving accelerated price growth across the region. As the Globe reports 'nearly half of all job growth and 75% of immigration' is happening in the 905.

Available freehold listings dropped 35% last week, falling to a 3 week low. Sales however have remained strong, improving by 7.8%. Fewer homes on the market and strong demand has led to a 10% increase in multiple offers over the week, to 69.3%. This was most noticeable in the $700k to $1.5m price range in the east and west core where a remarkable 90% of homes sold over asking. Our view is that month over month price gains will continue to cruise at double digit rates for the foreseeable future.

We believe that the condo sector may have finally come to the realization that its value lies more with end users who were unable to buy freehold homes. Despite an almost 16% decline in listings across the 416, sales have continued to strengthen registering a 3% increase over the previous week. The outstanding factor that proves the condo market's health has to be the percentage of sales at or above the list price, currently sitting at 34%, the highest percentage ever.

Welcome to the Oscar Edition of the weekly Bosley Market Insight. Last week, like a true Cinderella story, the spring market kicked into high gear with more strength than double-sided tape in an Oscar dress. Clearly The Force Awakens thanks to a strong increase in The Revenant listings. Unless you’ve been living like The Martian or happen to be Straight Outta Compton you probably have missed the fact that the real estate market is under The Spotlight at this time of year. We would be remiss not to welcome back those who have been sitting on the sidelines, especially those living in a Room on Fury Road. So it gives us great Joy to give you the latest news.

After an absence of several weeks, freehold resale listings are starting to move in a positive direction, increasing by 32.1% last week. The sweet spot for new listings across the entire core of the city is in the $700k to $1.5m range which increased nearly 60%, while sales in this category also saw tremendous activity, jumping 83%. What is interesting to note about the market is that cooler heads tend to prevail with only 60% of sales being recorded at or above the list price (compared to 76% a year ago).

The condo sector continues its positive momentum as well. Resale listings improved 21.8% last week, primarily in the central core, while sales increased by 33.5%. The majority of listings (45%) and sales (49%) fell into the $400k to $700k price range. This tends to be the price range where freehold home buyers are finding success in the search for their first home. Overall, the health of the condo market rests in the number of units selling at or above the list price. Last week that number was 25.1%.

There is no question in our minds that the mild winter has moved the spring market well into February. One problem still exists however...Sellers didn't get the memo. Like most of last year we continue to struggle with low inventories, a situation that has many puzzled. There is some strength to the arguement that economic uncertainty plays a part in the lack of listings but that seems to be a national concern rather than a local issue. Affordability seems more likely as the culprit within the freehold sector, as the average home across the GTA has increased over $100,000 in the last year.

Despite a continued increase of listings over the last few weeks it is important to note that overall listings for freehold homes are down significantly from last year at this time despite the influences of a brutal winter of polar vortexes.  Sales are marginally higher than a year ago but the percentage of sales at or over the list price is somewhat lower hinting at the idea that while inventories are down, listing prices are generally being set closer to market value. One notable market segment is the $700K-$1.5M segment in the central core where last week all sixteen sales sold above the list price.

We believe the condominium sector is filling in the gaps left by an ever appreciating freehold market. While listing inventory levels are similar to those recorded one year ago it is clear, by the 22% increase in sales, that the downtown core is seeing a Manhattanization of the housing stock. Increasing demand continues to push condo values higher as well as the number of suites selling at or over the list price (now sitting at 29.1% compared to 13.7% a year ago).

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.

Last week we waited in anticipation for an advanced weather prediction from nothing less than a couple of famous rodents. Ground Hog Day was a split decision but it made us wonder if we could use a similar technique for predicting the exact moment the spring market hits. Our suggestion is to put a green bin out on the sidewalk to see how the local racoons react. A knocked over bin indicates the spring market has started but if it’s frozen to the ground we have to wait another two weeks. Thoughts?

In the freehold resale market there is a strong indication that spring has sprung. Last week listings were up 54% from the previous week while sales climbed 40%. Typical of a sudden jump in new listings there is a lag of about a week before we see an uptick in sales. This is mainly due to the holdback period. While only 49% of existing homes sold at or above the list price we expect that percentage to improve significantly over the coming weeks. While the hottest area has been the east core, particularly in the mid-range price point, last week it was the west core that was the star with over 65% of properties sold at or above the list price.

The condominium sector may end up being the shining light of Toronto’s real estate market. Last week, new listings edged up 15% (almost entirely from the central core) while the number of sales improved by a remarkable 40%.  What is more interesting is that sales of suites at or above the list price rose from an already healthy 22.4% to a near all-time high of 28.9%. In both the east and west core of the city, there were almost as many sales as new listings. (35 to 37 units).

It’s  hard to believe that we are already one month into 2016. This winter is already the second warmest on record thanks to our friend El Nino. In real estate terms, mild winters are a blessing for those intrepid Realtors. It means no snow drifts to climb over, no hunting for parking spots while out showing and less layers to wear. Of course this would all be great if there were properties to show but our research indicates that listings in both the freehold and condo sector have backed off substantially from one year ago while demand has not wavered.

In the freehold sector, listings continue to be a source of concern. One year ago there were 221 new listings compared to just 120 this year. Sales on the other hand are brisk. Our records indicate 115 sales last week compared to a mere 74 for the same period last year. It is interesting to note that last year only about 53% of homes sold at or above asking while this year that percentage has climbed to 66.7. The hottest area was the east core where nearly 90% of homes sold at or over the asking price.

A similar market exists in the resale condominium sector. Listings are off about 20% while sales are up by 32% from one year ago. Last year sales at or over the list price were a very respectable 18.9% while this year we are reporting 22.4%. While the number of new listings has remained stable in the east and west, there is a noticeable drop in the central core, proving once again that demand still exists for central condos.

It’s been a few weeks since we last reported and this being the beginning of a brand new year we wanted to get off to an early AND fresh start. Here’s a recap of what we are all about…Our market insights give you a quick snapshot of what’s happening in the core neighbourhoods of the city. We track listings and sales of homes and condos from the 401 to the lake and stretch as far east as the Beaches and as far west as Bloor West Village.  To truly understand and gauge the temperature of the real estate market in Toronto we scour the data available to us and record key metrics such as the number of properties in various price ranges and how many are being traded at or above the list price. The research is extensive and time consuming but provides our agents and their clients with the knowledge they need to make informed decisions.  Today is the starting point on a year-long journey.

In the freehold sector, listings are currently at an all-time low. By comparison, in late May of 2015 we had nearly 500 new listings on the market. Last week we recorded an impossibly low 45. The lack of listings did not deter buyers however. In the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day we recorded 27 sales with just under half of them at or above the list price. In one situation we saw one mid-priced detached home property sell over $200k more than the list price.

Not surprisingly, the condominium market is also experiencing low listing activity. Just 153 properties were listed throughout the core of the city last week. A surprising 14% of the 68 condos that sold traded at or above the list price. We are well off the record number of listings that we will see at the height of the market but even with low levels of existing listings there are plenty of opportunities to find excellent end user or investment suites.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Jordan, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 240 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately report on the true temperature of the real estate market.