Corinne McCabe , Broker

The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) recently retained Nanos Research to do a survey among Ontarians actively in the real estate market. The takeaway was that despite economic uncertainty due to the pandemic, homeownership is seen as a good investment.

Here are some of the results:

• Six in ten Ontarians active in the real estate market consider buying a home a very good investment even in the current environment.

• Four in ten who are active in the housing market say they would be open to buying a house if they could only view it virtually.

• Eight in ten say it would be important to use a Realtor to help with the purchase of their home, and this is consistent across all age groups.

• Six in ten Ontarians who own a home and plan to sell in the next two years are not sure when they will list their home (61%), while 28% say they will list as soon as the pandemic is over, and 11% say they will list in the next few months.

• A majority of Ontarians say being in isolation at home has not changed their view of what they want in their next home (74%), while 26% say it has changed what they want in their next home.

• Nine in ten who own a home and are active in the real estate market report they have not refinanced their home or used a home equity line of credit to cope financially during Covid.

• Residents of the City of Toronto are most likely to report they plan to buy a home in the next two years (59%), and younger Ontarians (18 to 34) are more likely to report they plan to buy (59%), than those 55 plus (23%). Renters are significantly more likely to report  they plan to buy in the next two years (87%) than homeowners (27%).

• Four in ten Ontarians who own their home have taken advantage of the pandemic to renovate, repair or upgrade their home. Asked for the approximate value of the renovations and repairs, $18,960.

Toronto home sales rebounded in June, with the average selling price up 12% from the same month last year to $1,022,138. (first time we have surpassed $1 million) For the GTA region the average price of a home hit $930,869 also up 12%. Competition is heating up again with multiple offers and bids well over asking prices. Home buyers were forced to put their purchases on hold when the pandemic hit in March. Now that Ontario and Toronto are easing restrictions, buyers have started to pounce. The GTA saw 8,701 homes sold in June, up 84% compared to May and signals suggest that some of that momentum is continuing into July.

In the surrounding suburbs and nearby cities, prices also surged, in part because of demand from Torontonians looking for more space. The strongest price growth for the city of Toronto were the semi-detached homes up 22% from a year ago to an average of $1,287,832 and detached homes up 14.3% to an average of $1,523,770. The condo market also saw a price growth of 5.6% in Toronto, where the average price is now $672,000.

How long will this “catch-up phase” last? Some economists predict this frenzied pace will not last. CHMC said it is too soon to revise its forecast and pointed to a number of risks that could hamper the housing market, including sustained job losses, a slow recovery and a second outbreak of COVID-19 cases leading to another lockdown. The agency had also forecasted a decline in home prices of up to 18 per cent for this year although so far that is not bearing out, with the Toronto region’s housing market on fire. We are still in the early days of recovery, but a gradually improving labour market – (Statistics Canada today posted the economy added nearly one million jobs in June ) and historically low mortgage rates are expected to support a recovery in the second half of 2020, barring any setbacks. 

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Open houses have been suspended throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and while real estate services were declared essential and have continued uninterrupted, agents have innovating methods for home-showings like Facebook Live, 3-D video tours, Zoom and a good portion of real estate transactions including paperwork occurs electronically. Consumers are adapting during this extraordinary time, and their willingness to embrace new tools tells us that the Canadian dream of home ownership remains strong, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Though there has been a drop in listings, the prices in the GTA have largely been unaffected by the global pandemic so far. Nearly half of Ontarians who plan to buy a home in the next two years say that they are willing to consider going ahead with a purchase even if they can only view the property virtually, according to a new poll commissioned by the Ontario Real Estate Association. The poll also revealed that there is a portion of prospective sellers that have held off on listing their properties for sale due to COVID-19, but 54 per cent of them are willing to consider virtual showings or somewhat open to the idea.

The poll conducted by Nanos Research on behalf of the OREA found that 48.9 per cent of prospective buyers are either open or somewhat open to buying a house virtually compared to 46.6 per cent who say that they are not open to the idea. Meanwhile, about 26 per cent said that they would buy a home as soon as the pandemic concludes. About 61 per cent of prospective buyers and sellers, meanwhile, said that the pandemic did not have an impact on their decisions to list or buy properties. 

Meanwhile, last week we saw another 23% jump in freehold listings and a slight increase in sales but of those, 75% sold at or above the asking price. The condo sector also saw a 29% increase in listings and the sales were up 18% with 42% of those selling at or above the list price. While continued tightening of mortgage lending continues, it has not put a damper on the market.

In the early stages of the lockdown most of us where in a state of shock. That has changed as time has gone on. People now realize it will not be the same moving forward, so we are starting to plan for life after the lockdown.

Toronto real estate sale numbers may be down overall, but homes in certain neighbourhoods of the city are attracting avid interest. This week we know of a couple of properties that went wild. A two-bedroom semi in Danforth Village listed at $799K attracted 12 offers and a detached in prime Riverdale listed at $1.8M got 8 bully offers. The hottest-selling price sector in April was the $750,000-$999,000 range for freeholds, which includes semis and townhouses. With 184 sales, it was three times higher than the next price tier which is between $1 million and $1.25 million that saw 61 transactions.

The lowest point for sales was the week ending April 11, with 557 sales in the Toronto region, but the numbers have steadily increased since, to 909 in the first week of May. That is still half of what the sales were in mid-March, but it does represent 63-per-cent growth since the recent lockdown shock. Because active listings continue to decline, the competition for the few houses out there seems to be supporting prices. 

It’s hard to see it now but the dust will settle, and we will be left with a new world to navigate for our clients. We do know that whatever the outcome, it will be different than it was before and there is no going back. The pandemic will leave behind the largest consumer shift in world history. People will spend differently, people will have different tolerance levels for risk, and people will need to transact real estate.

Awh…the month of May when spring gradually blooms into summer and finally some good news to report. Some economists apparently predict home prices to rise 6% this year and we can expect to see rapid price growth once the outbreak passes, several recent forecasts have predicted, even amid massive job losses. Despite a steep drop in sales this year, the average home price in Canada will be 6.1% higher at the end of this year than it was a year earlier, TD Bank said in a forecast issued this week.

Given that incomes are unlikely to rise much during this crisis, affordability will deteriorate when you look at house prices. Sales may be falling, but the supply of homes on the market is falling with them which means the market balance isn’t shifting much. The country won’t see a sudden rush of people who need to sell their homes quickly, thanks to the banks’ new mortgage deferral programs.

And what about the millions of Canadians who have lost work in this crisis? Won’t this affect house prices? Economists think that won’t have as much impact on the housing market as one would think, because, they say the jobs lost in this crisis have disproportionately affected people in service industries ― think customer service reps and Starbucks baristas ― and these people overwhelmingly tend to rent.

TD’s forecast sees Toronto house prices rising 7.8% this year, compared to last year, while Vancouver will see 4.7% growth. Things will look worse out west, TD predicted, where the oil slump will lead to a 4.7% price decline in Alberta. Sales are poised to plunge at a historic pace in April, while gradually recovering in subsequent months as buyers remain cautious, the report states. “We think this recession is going to be deep but quick, and the economy will recover quite quickly as soon as we substantially get through the health crisis”, said chief economist Peter Norman for The Altus Group.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen many changes to our daily routines as a result of COVID-19. We at Bosley feel it’s our duty to give back to the community we love so dearly in whatever way we can, so we’re coming to you! We have gathered together a group of volunteer agents who are available to help you with deliveries, whether it be groceries, or any drug store need. Just give us a call at 416-530-1100 and ask for Mary and we will get right on it to help you. Nothing about this time is normal and we’ve abandoned trying to make it so. But we are still reaching for little things that offer support.

We’re only beginning to understand the destructive nature of COVID-19 and the way this pandemic will transform how we work and live together. We do understand, however, that the need to social distance from each other to curb this pandemic is particularly problematic when making the biggest purchase or sale of your life; this decision requires a high level of trust and a high level of interaction and asking you to reduce face time with an agent is a lot to ask. 

Bosley Real Estate is one of the brokerages participating in the growing practice of requiring buyers, sellers and service providers to acknowledge the risks to personal health that arise from showing and visiting the property during this pandemic. All sales representatives are dedicated to participating in the global, national and local efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Following the mandate from our government and regulatory agencies, we have pared back our offices and have implemented strict policies to protect both our communities and agents. We have done this, however, without compromising our ability to serve.

We are in uncertain times today, but the values - trust, integrity, knowledge and discretion, that has defined Bosley Real Estate for ninety-two years remains unchanged. With these values in mind, it is more important than ever that we continue to observe the COVID-19 restrictions so that lives are saved, communities are maintained and, eventually, business as usual will be an option.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.