Corinne McCabe , Broker

Stocks have fallen hard in the last couple of weeks, so does that mean Toronto Real Estate is the new gold? Sales of houses and condos for the first week in March were up 47% over the same period last year and average prices rose 18%. Sales are still strong, there are still plenty of bidding wars, and open houses are still busy. There has also been a sharp decline in interest rates for all kinds of borrowing including mortgage rates. These lower interest rates have sent the mortgage industry into a frenzy, as buyer’s race to take advantage of cheaper loans. A five-year fixed-rate loan is sitting as low as 2.29%, close to the record low of 2.09% offered in November 2016, after oil prices crashed and the central bank had to cut rates to stimulate the economy. But could these rate cuts be a warning sign about a lack of security for jobs and incomes? The one good beacon of hope is the health crisis appears to be fading in China and South Korea, creating the possibility of future positive surprises.

The Toronto Real Estate board announced the stats for the month of February, and it was all positive news. For the City of Toronto, the average sale price was $989,218 up 17% from a year ago. The number of sales were up by 31% and new listings were up 6.6%. Double-digit average rice growth was experienced for most major segments with detached homes leading the way up 14.4% to $1,485,304.

The condo market is still going strong. The average price for a condo in the City of Toronto is up 18% to $722,675 compared to last February which was $612,488. As market conditions tighten, competition between buyers has clearly increased. Last week 71% of condos sold in multiple offers. That’s the highest percentage we have seen in awhile.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Port Hope and Cambridge Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Businesses all over the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the Coronavirus’s impact on various markets. Could our real estate market be affected? Toronto was one the first places in Canada to experience Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) related emergencies in 2003. Interestingly, housing sales data from 2003 in Toronto show no apparent signs of suffering. Sales increased in units from the previous year, and similarly the average sale price increased during the same time period. Coronavirus to date has already claimed more lives than SARS did in 2003. The uncertainty about how long the threat will last and how quickly it can be contained will weigh heavily on the markets. Since the epicentre of the breakout is far from Canada, it is probable that the adverse impacts on Canadian markets will be moderate at worst.

The market continues to pick up steam with freehold listings doubling what they were the previous week. The high-end luxury market saw 30 new listings above 3 million dollars come to market last week with the central core leading the way. But the number of sold properties was down 16% week-over-week. Buyers are circling and they are willing to move quickly when they see a property that ticks all the right boxes. There seems to be an exuberance in the office this week and no doubt that the market is starting to take off.

The condo market took a different direction and saw a 21% drop in new listings last week, and no change in the number of condos sold week-over-week. Condo sales continue to sell above their list price with 67% of all sales happening above the asking price. The majority of sales last week were in the $499K to $700K price range, which is an indication that there are plenty of first-time buyers out there.

The government is at it again. On Tuesday they said they would make it easier for some people to get into the housing market by tweaking the mortgage stress test, making it slightly lower for insured loans. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), which regulates banks is expected to extend a new weekly benchmark to uninsured mortgages this spring. It’s a move that could be worrisome because some believe this will fuel prices even more, especially at the lower end of the market where condos are already in short supply. The number of condos available for sale in January was the lowest it’s been in 25 years. A lot of that is due to investors holding onto their units. Condo prices appreciated 15 percent last year.

The number of new listings continued to contract last week but that could be because of the family day holiday. There were 19% fewer listings week over week which created increased competition with 10% more sold properties and of those, 66 per cent sold at or over the asking price. The east core continues to be a hot district which had 24 properties sold and of those 22 sold above the asking price.

The condo market is having the reverse affect. Overall listings were up 13% in the central core last week and the sold numbers were steady week to week and of the condos sold, 64% sold at or over the asking price. Resale condos that were selling for $1000 a square foot downtown a few months ago are now fetching $1,100 or close to $1,200 a square foot in some cases. Meanwhile, condos selling in the preconstruction phase are commanding $1,400 a square foot or more.

Is the Toronto housing market picking up steam at an “uncomfortable” pace that resembles the sky-high gains of 2016? One just has to look at the number of multiple offers and wild bidding wars to know that demand is at an all time high. So what should we expect as we move forward? Hopefully as we start moving into the spring market many agents are anxious to see if listings will become more plentiful especially after this long family weekend. We as realtors continue to do what we always do. We perform our duties and forge ahead. Let us take this weekend to be with family and see what next week brings us. Happy Family Day!

We have been collecting weekly sales data for awhile now and it is often fun to look back a year and compare markets. For instance, last year at this time there were 15% more freehold listings available throughout all neighbourhoods but sold properties were down 55% in 2019 at this time. The number of properties selling at or above the asking price this year is at 62% compared to last year which was 58%.

The resale condo sector is following the same trends. New listings are down 18% than the same period last year but sales are up a whooping 62% more than last year at this time. And the number of condos sold at or above the asking price is still at a high of 62%. The condo market has been traditionally reserved for first-time buyers, but as freehold home ownership becomes less affordable, we expect even more activity in the condo market.

The home sales market continues to boom in January, which traditionally has been a slow time for realtors. According to the stats that were just released for January, we started 2020 where 2019 left off, and that the Toronto and GTA real estate market is showing signs of strength in price and the continuation of a new upward trend. The average selling price for the City of Toronto is up 13.7% to $884,385 compared to a year ago. Again, the problem is the shortage of listings which were down 16%. Even if the volume of transactions remains relatively low in the Toronto area, demand is building. It seems anything coming to market is being snapped up in days. The lack of housing supply is the main reason behind soaring prices in and around Toronto.

This week TD Bank slashed its 5-Year posted mortgage rate used for the stress test to 4.99%, the lowest among Canada's big banks, fueling demand for lower­ priced homes among first time buyers. Last week the number of freehold properties sold, saw no change week-over-week, but a huge influx of new listings hit the market up 65% from the previous week. Hot spot neighbourhoods like Riverdale and Leslieville are eagerlyawaiting more listings to appear with 64% of properties selling at or above the asking price.

The downtown condo market is insane. It seems downtown condos offer a lifestyle that buyers want. Multiple offers and over-asking prices are the norm, but supply is still an issue. The condo market saw a 10% decline in listings last week and sales remained steady with no increase week-to-week. According to the stats that werereleased condo prices have jumped a whooping 15% in the City of Toronto and the surrounding GTA comparedto the same time last year. There are approximately 29,500 condos under construction that are scheduled to be completed this year, surpassing the previous high set in 2014 (21,000).