Corinne McCabe , Broker

Ground Control to Major Tom, take your protein pills and put your helmet on. And just like that the Fall market has started. In case you have been away this summer it might be worth a quick recap on just where we are in the real estate world. After a rocking great start to the year with record sales through April the provincial government created their Fair Housing Plan, including their new rules on rental properties and a foreign buyers tax.  Not to be outdone, the federal government then joined the chorus with not one but two increases to the prime interest rate that the banks were only too happy to embrace and have begun to hum the tune of stricter borrowing rules that we have heard before. While the municipal government has kept out of the legislative choir it seems they are mostly hoping all these measures to cool the market don’t work too well, because gosh they really need all that income from the land transfer tax. So what does all this mean to Toronto’s real estate Fall market? It’s a bit too early to say. What we can say is that perhaps we are not all singing the same tune.  The media continues to sing the song of market collapse while from the background singers we are hearing whispers of homes selling with 8 offers and multi-million dollar Rosedale mansions selling after one day on the market.

The freehold sector was up a whopping 450% or five times more new listings than the previous week. This is not unusual for so many listings coming out after labour day. What was unusual was the amount of sold listings down by almost 50% from the previous week, with 20 per cent selling over the asking price. What was notable last week was 29 new listings in the central core listed above $3 million!

The condo market also saw an increase in new listings. Up 200% over the previous week, with the sweet spot being the $400k to $700k. While sales tapered off 45% over the previous week, a substantial amount (34%) of the sales, sold over the asking price. The condo rental market is fierce these days. New listings don’t even last a day and most end up in a bidding war. The average one bedroom in Toronto is now $2,089 a month!

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Back to school in September always feels like the beginning of a new year for real estate. We are all prepping and preparing for the Fall Market. So many predictions are made but time will tell us how it will all unfold. The Toronto Real Estate Board stats came out the other day and the average cost of a home in August was $732,292 up by three percent compared to August 2016.The number of new listings entered into the MLS system was down by 6.7% year-over-year. Home sales in August were down 34.8%. While we might be seeing clouds forming on the horizon, summer real estate numbers aren't always the best indicators of where the market is going.

While the price of detached homes remained unchanged this August compared to last, semi-detached home prices are still up 12.1 percent and the average condominium price has increased 21.4 per cent since August 2016 for an average price of $507,841. The real estate market has the benefit of a strong GDP growth, low interest rates and unemployment. The latest interest hike increase may also spur sales as potential buyers decide to act now to lock in a mortgage rate if they believe more rate increases may be coming.

All these statistics represent the GTA and fail to target the specific statistics in each individual neighbourhood. Our market is very diverse and the numbers of one area are not necessarily reflective of the market as a whole. House hunters still prefer to take their time, but we are seeing a notable increase in confidence after the craziness that set in late spring. It’s too soon to know if the rate hike will change buyer psychology because many opt for five-year fixed terms on their mortgages. The first week after Labour day weekend usually brings a spike in listings so let’s see if that stands true this year!

As we approach the middle of August, the traffic around the city gets a little lighter and it seems like it’s your last chance to take a bit of a breather before we start to think about getting ready for the fall real estate market. There is much talk around the office about all the new listings that will be hitting MLS after Labour Day. Will it be a repeat of May when we saw an excess of listings come to market? Are buyers waiting patiently for the impending influx of new listings to satisfy their desire for a place to call home?

The freehold sector remained relatively unchanged from the previous week. Sales were steady but the amount of new listings has tapered off by 33 per cent. The $700k to $1.5m price range was the busiest sector and 43 per cent of the sales, sold over the asking price. The west end was the hot spot this week for buyers with more than half of the homes selling over asking.

The condo sector has eased off as well with slightly less new listings and 12 per cent less sales. The hot spot is the $400K to $700K price range in the central core and 18 percent of the sales, sold over asking. The big talk in the office this week was the rental market with condo rentals receiving as many as 16 offers! Trying to find a rental in Toronto is a lot like online dating. With students going back to school renting in Toronto is the hardest it’s ever been. With rents increasing on average 11% in the last year, the average one bedroom in Toronto is $2,089 a month.

The dog days of August are upon us.  The weather is finally hot, hot, hot and sipping drinks on a patio is where we all want to be.  Listings are slowing down but last week sales were slightly up by 8%.   There was a significant increase in open house traffic last weekend and agents are seeing more appointments being booked on their listings.  Stories around the office of properties that had 9, 16 and 18 offers this week got everyone all talking.   Is pricing low to generate offers the way to go?

Some agents believe to list with an asking price close to market value and accept offers anytime and some believe to list low and set a date for offers.  The latter seems to be happening again.  It’s too soon to tell if a flurry of sales signals a trend that some buyers simply need to move on with their lives.

The July resale housing market figures were just released for the GTA, and results show we were down 40.4% in sales on a year-over-year basis and listings were up slightly (5%) above last year.  The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 5% from 2016 to $746,218.  Sumer market statistics are often not the best indicators of housing market conditions.  “Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market conditions evolve.”, said Mr. Syrianos, TREB president.

Are we all tired of reading and listening to what the media has to say about the housing market in Toronto? There wasn't a week that went by that some so called expert didn't write their views about the market. For sure market conditions have changed and we are all adjusting, so why don't they give it a rest. The last major housing correction followed a global economic crisis in 2008. The conditions aren't there this time for a major market meltdown. The Toronto market still needs time to absorb how the buyers and sellers are going to react to the policy changes.

The Toronto Real Estate Board's midmonth numbers for July show sales down 39.3% year over year in the first half of July. With sales down and new listings slightly up {6.5%) the market was better supplied compared to last year. This gave us a more moderate 7.4% annual growth rate for the average selling price, which is $776,036 for the City of Toronto.

Despite the recent dip in GTA home sales the condo market is continuing to gain popularity with home buyers. First time buyers who want to live in the city have turned their attention in increasing numbers to less expensive forms of housing. The average selling price for condominium apartments increased 28.1% compared to 2016. The average price for a condo in the City of Toronto is $566,513, compared to $442,834 in 2016.

House prices go up, house prices go down. Whatever happens the rest of the year, Toronto housing is probably a safe bet. Toronto is a very attractive destination!

The traffic has slowed down and you can tell most people have ventured out of town for their summer holidays. The weather has finally warmed up and everyone is taking advantage of the great outdoors. Open house attendance has dropped off and property showings have slowed down. In real estate language, we call this "The Summer Market".

It's easy to see the freehold sector easing into the summer market. Listings remained unchanged except for a slight increase in the 3 million plus range. There is still some good news. Homes selling in the $700 to $1.5m range, almost half of them sold over asking!

In the condo sector the number of new listings has not increased but a surprising number of condos (35) are available in the $300-400 range and more than 50% have sold over the asking price. Good news for the first time buyers with a small budget.

The Bank of Canada interest rate hike last week could prolong the slowdown of the Toronto housing market, but economist Benjamin Tal said it is not expected to last long term. "What led to the slowdown in Vancouver was really more domestic buyers waiting to see what the foreign buyers tax will do."

While Toronto could follow a similar path to the Vancouver market that saw a significant decline, there are other factors now at play, Tal said.

"We also see interest rates going up and the regulators are talking about introducing more measures to slow down the market" he said. "That's why it's possible the slowdown in Toronto will be more durable than the slowdown in Vancouver." 

If you are working the downtown condo market or involved in the ridiculously heated rental market you might wonder what all the talk is about a declining real estate market.  However, if you are working the uptown detached market you might be trying to focus your inner Stuart Smalley by slowly repeating “I’m good enough, I’m smart enough and gosh darn it people want to buy my listings”. Buyers who are looking at the entry level market, which these days means small condos, are in tough and often competing for a space to call home.  The Buyers that had been chomping at the bit and competing for the large detached homes seem to have completely forgotten that they ever wanted to buy anything at all.

The freehold market has continued its slow march to the summer months with a decline in sales of nearly 45% to only 64 sales this past week compared to 113 the week before. And while we still here the odd story of multiple offers, the number of homes selling above their listed price has dropped to only 20%.  Listings last week increased substantially over the week before with an increase of almost 50%. Most of the increase in new listings came in the east and west areas while the central core remained fairly consistent over the previous week.

The condo market has also settled into the summer cycle with an increase in new listings and a decline in sales over the previous week. Maybe the most interesting aspect of the condo market is the difference between the entry level condo and the high end condo market. If you are looking to get into the starter market in condos be prepared for continued stiff competition.  More than 50% of the condos listed under $700,000 sold above their advertised price which is a trend we have been watching closely for several weeks.  It was reported that an aggressively priced condo in the central core recently garnered the attention of 40 offers.  Lucky for the 39 bidders that lost that there are a whole lot more condos coming to market this summer for them to bid on. Not so lucky perhaps are sellers of high end condos who have seen a marked decrease in sales activity.