Corinne McCabe , Broker

In the olden days of yore we used to judge the changing of the seasons by stepping outside and observing the natural environment.  Cooler evenings and the kaleidoscope of colours  would indicate the onset of Fall and a powdering of snow was a sure indicator that winter was upon us.  The weather seems a less reliable indicator these days but not to worry the world of marketing and retail sales will keep us focused on the changing seasons.  If you haven’t left your house since Halloween you may not have noticed that it is suddenly Christmas everywhere you look. Unfortunately, the real estate market does not flip seasons as easily as your local retailer and the indicators we look for are harder to spot. The fall market is influenced by many things including believe it or not, when we get our first snow fall. Snow and bad weather not only indicate the approaching holidays when nobody really wants strangers tromping through their houses in Uggs and Blundstones and understandably the typical Seller and Buyer start to consider things other than real estate (I know we hardly believe it ourselves). This fall has been a particularly difficult market to get a finger on.  Some days are hotter than average and setting records and some neighbourhoods feel like they are in a cool chill.  New legislation makes some people think that the market will end early and has others thinking it will go to the last day of the year. We will keep on working and let you know how our seasonal transition fairs.

In the freehold market the number of new listings and sales both showed continued declines after seeing numbers rise through the first two weeks of October. Listings were down 7% over the previous week to 166 from 180 but are down a significant 30% since the mid-month high of 237. Sales declined 30% over the previous week from 136 to 93 and the percentage of homes that sold above their advertised price was 46%, down 12% from the previous week.  The east end continues to be the hottest freehold market with 65% of all sales going above their listed price.

The condo market held steady in new listings with an increase of 10% up 28 new listings to 295 last week. The new listings have been incredibly consistent for months with each week being within 10-15% up or down of the previous week.  There seems much less variation in numbers of new condo listings than compared to the freehold market.  There was a similar decline of sales in the condo market as with the freehold market with 26% fewer units selling last week over the previous week.  The number of condos selling above their listed price was 32% which falls within the typical range we have seen the entire fall market, never straying from 25-35% of condos selling above their advertised price. 

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

The Toronto Real Estate Board released the market stats for October and its good news once again! We saw a dramatic increase in sales (7,118) between September and October of almost 12 per cent pointing to stronger fall market conditions. The average selling price for the GTA for October was $780,000 up by 2.3 per cent compared to $762,691 in October 2016. For the City of Toronto the average sale price for October was $818,201 compared to $769,712 in October 2016 up by 6.3 per cent!

"Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However, this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten years. So, while the number of transactions (7,118) was still down relative to last year's record pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up" said Mr. Syrianos, TREB president.

For The City Of Toronto the average price for a detached home is $1,287,765 slightly down by 1.1%. The average price for a semi-detached is up by 5.2% to $948,309. The strongest growth was seen in townhomes averaging at $742,845 up by 8%, but the condo apartment has seen an insane price growth of 21% averaging at $555,004.

Last week in the city the freehold market was down 30% in new listings but up 18% in sales with 58% selling above the asking price. The condo market last week was slightly down in new listings but saw a dramatic 27% increase in sales with 33% selling over the asking price. Similar to what happened in Vancouver, it appears that the psychological impact of The Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind.

Do you have at least 20 per-cent home equity and need a new mortgage? Are your housing costs more than a third of your gross income? If you answered yes and yes, then you should mark January 1, 2018 on our calendar. That's when our banking regulator's new mortgage stress test officially kicks in. And if you meet the criteria above, you may not qualify for as big a mortgage next year as you do today. Will this create a little mini boom? Two consecutive months of rising sales in August and September confirm that buyers are surfacing again and Sellers in the Toronto area seem more confident with more listings coming to market. Agents are predicting a small flurry of buying as people rush to ink a deal before the new requirements come into effect.

The freehold market saw a 15 per cent increase for new listings in all sectors with the east end leading the pack, up over 20 per cent in new listings and 75 percent of the sales in the east sold over asking with plenty of bully offers as well. The central core saw a small increase in new listings but a whopping 50 per cent more sold over the prior week. Bidding wars are up 40 per cent throughout all neighbourhoods.

In the condo market new listings were up 13 per cent with 285 new units up from 253 units from the previous week with the central core leading the way. The units sold were up 10 per cent with a small decline of condos selling over the asking price. Condos that are priced to sell are being snapped up within days of them hitting the market and the sweet spot are condos listed from $400k to $700K.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

We’ve recently noticed a trend of Realtors walking around and playing with yo-yo’s. Yes, that well known toy that goes up and down the string, up and down, up and down.  Forgive us if our emotions are playing out with our toys because the market is starting to feel a little like a yo-yo. One week the market is taking off and then we take a break for the long weekend. The next week we see the listings come out and think up it will go. Then we listen to the government introduce new mortgage rules and we start to wonder if this is the week it will slow down.  But wait, maybe changes to mortgage rules will mean a rush of buyers trying to purchase before the new rules come into effect. Up and down, up and down. In every market there are still people that need and want to buy and sell. People move for life-style and life changes, babies and retirement. Our market is still moving and from what we see it is still moving in an upward direction.  There are still multiple offers on hot properties and the condo market continues to shine.

The freehold market continues to follow the long weekend pattern.  After taking a breather for Thanksgiving we note that as expected the listings are up with people coming to market after waiting out the long weekend.  And as we saw the regular decline of listings before the long weekend we are never surprised that sales are down the week after the holiday break. Listings increased 25% over the previous week though it was interesting to note a slight decrease in listings in the west end compared to a huge increase of 82% in the east end. What we do note with some concern is that the number of listings that sold above their asking price has declined again to 26% from the peak of nearly 50% only four short weeks ago.

The condo market, as we know, cares less for long weekends and acting like the rebellious teen compared to the mature freehold market decided to go in the exact opposite direction. Long weekend and Thanksgiving aside we actually saw a slight decline in new condo listings, down to 253 from 295 the previous week and sales stayed essentially the same moving up slightly to 141 over the 134 sold in the previous week.  Condos that sold above their advertised price represented 34% of the total sales for the week and this is a number that  has remained fairly consistent throughout the fall market.Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

Although I'll go wherever my clients need me, I prodominately work the East side of Toronto, as it's what I know best.  I have been living in Danforth Village for over 10 years now, and it was Leslieville for 5 years before that. 

Recently I was thinking of all the contacts I've made over the years, and thought it would be neat to see on a map all the houses on the East side that I've either bought, sold or leased for my clients.  Well, here it is!  I figure I'll keep this map handy and update it from time to time. It's a great visual for me.

The point?.. 18 years as a Realtor, I have the experience and knowledge, so if you need anything on the East side, whether to buy sell or lease, I'm always available to help.

Call us unimaginative, but along with being thankful for family, good health and warm fall weather, this year we are going to be thankful for being Realtors®. Again. Sure, it has been and up and down and up kind of year and no we have not moved out of the near bottom ranking of jobs people like to hate, but nobody gets to explore and enjoy the city like we do. As the city learns to live a high-rise lifestyle we Realtors can enjoy some of the city’s most stunning views in the morning and wander amongst the grand homes of Lawrence Park in the afternoon. Condo owners have a bit more to be happy about as overall price growth in that sector continues to outstrip the single home market but recent stats from the Toronto Real Estate Board show all house types up year-over-year in the 416. Happy Thanksgiving!

In the condo market there was a modest decline in new listings as we head into the Thanksgiving long weekend with listings down 12% to 276 from 314 the previous week. Buyers can be thankful, though Sellers are definitely not, that the percentage of condos selling above their listed price continues to decline. This week only (yes, only) 27% of condos sold over their advertised price, down from above 40% in early-September.

In the freehold market the decline in new listings was more pronounced, down 17% from the previous week. While the condo market seems to have found its identity (just keep going up), the freehold market still seems to be looking for stable footing.  We are witnessing a bit of everything, with some listings reducing their prices after a few weeks and some still increasing their price when they don’t get a bidding war on offer night. Bidding wars are still happening with 35% of homes selling above their list price, just not to the same extent they were in the ultra hot spring market.

This past week we in the industry seem to be of two minds.  It seems all the Realtors are holding the same half full glass of water and we are debating the age old question of is the glass half full or is it really half empty. Some Realtors are trying to hold offer dates and others are trying to list where they think a property’s market value lies.  Some are still thinking about the market softening after the April ‘peak’ and others are looking for a new peak this Fall. After watching the steady increase in freehold properties being sold above their listed price this last week we are definitely leaning towards the half glass full philosophy. One thing everyone does seem to agree on is that there is a bit of a lack of quality listings coming to the market.

In the freehold market new listings tailed off a bit last week with 259 new listings coming to market compared to 306 in the previous week. The percentage of freehold properties selling above their listed price increased from 40% to 49%. The hottest product was the $700,000-1,500,000 price range in the east end where 66% of properties sold above their advertised price.  The same category in the west end showed 50% of listings sell above their advertised price and in the central core the number becomes a more modest 38%.

In the condo market new listings have seem to hit a stable number with 314 new listings last week compared to the 337 the week before. The hottest segment of the condo market is also in the $700,000-1,500,000 but overall there was a decline in the number of condos that sold above their advertised price.  Last week saw an easing off of condos that sold above their listed price coming down 6% from the 40% of properties the previous week. With 34% of all condos last week selling above their advertised price the condo market seems to be settling into a nice groove for the Fall market.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

It was with some sadness that we heard the news this week of the death of Wiarton Willy, the lovable groundhog that has predicted with less than perfect results whether we would be free of the grip of winter or due for a prolonged cold spell. And, as we thought fondly of Willy we were reminded of one of our favourite non-real estate movies starring Bill Murray – Groundhog Day. If Bill Murray was a Realtor® he would be living a version of Groundhog Day today. Waking up this morning and looking at the trend in sales he might think he was back in March.  Listings and sales are up in condos and the freehold market and more importantly the percentage of properties selling above their list price reached 40% in both the condo and freehold markets.  While 40% of sales above list may still be far from the Spring days of 80-90% of deals selling above their advertised price it is certainly an interesting trend that we will be watching carefully.

In the freehold market new listings jumped 30% to 306 from 237 the previous week. Several of those new listings are actually re-lists of properties that were previously listed in the Spring market but it is important to note that the market has not been flooded by listings that did not sell in the spring.  In most neighbourhoods these re-lists represent only a small portion of all the new listings. Sales in the freehold market jumped significantly nearly tripling from the previous week with 110 freehold properties being sold compared to only 39 in the previous week. We recently heard the story of a property that had been previously listed, but not sold, in the spring that came back to the market with a slightly lower asking price only to be sold in multiple offers for more than the original spring price.

The condo market also saw an uptick in new listings with 337 new units coming to market last week compared to 318 the week before.  While this increase is fairly small it does show a trend of balanced numbers of condo properties coming to market.  Condo sales also increased last week going from 95 two weeks ago to 132 last week.  This represents a healthy 40% increase in condo sales week over week and we will be watching carefully to see how the condo market trends through the remainder of the year.