Corinne McCabe , Broker

As Spring comes upon us and the trees and flowers begin to bloom, we Realtors often have to remember to stop and smell the roses lest we wake up one day to find ourselves in the dog days of summer.  Unfortunately, given the frenetic pace of a usual spring market many Realtors miss the awaking of spring entirely, instead focusing on helping their clients to buy or sell the home of their dreams.  Even after the announcements from the provincial government of changes to the industry, the market seemed to continue down its usual path through a freshly blooming garden.  So, weren’t we all a bit surprised when this week the entire city took a deep breath and decided to stop and smell the roses.  There is much talk of buyers waiting to see how things shake out and nervous sellers wondering if they have missed the top of the market. With continued low interest rates, steady immigration to the city and provincial legislation aimed at promoting upward instead of outward growth we are confident that the market will continue its positive trajectory throughout the spring.

The Freehold market saw a steady supply of new listings last week.  Though down slightly from the previous week this is likely a result of the rush of listings after the Easter and Passover breaks.  Sales also rebounded nicely in response to the increased inventory of new listings with 232 freehold properties changing hands.  There was also a slight increase in listings selling over the advertised price with a more typical 78% of all sales going above the asking price.

The condo market also saw a consistent number of new listings when compared to the previous week settling in at an even 400 new listings last week. Sale numbers were up slightly from 193 to 201 last week and the number of sales above the advertised price were back at a more typical 75% of condo sales.

The sky is not falling. The pigs are not yet flying. And we are pretty sure that the price of real estate in Toronto is going to keep climbing, though perhaps not as quickly as it was already this year.  But really, maybe it will.  After the announcement of the Government of Ontario’s ‘Fair Housing Plan’ our in-house experts pored over the information looking for whatever information might lead us to think the suggested changes would improve housing affordability in the GTA. We quickly dismissed point 15 thinking that while working elevators are fairly essential in a condo building, their lack of movement up or down was probably not having a huge effect on affordability in the market.  Many of us thought it might be fun to join the ‘Housing Supply Team’ or the ‘Housing Advisory Group”, but at the end of the day we all have full time jobs that we like.  The two points that we did pull out that we think will affect the market were the 15-per-cent Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) and the imposition of rent controls on all properties in Ontario, eliminating the exemption for properties built after 1991. For now we wait patiently for the legislation that will make all these announcements law and will give us the details that will allow clarity moving forward. On one last note, if you were thinking of heading out of town for your next purchase you should probably take a look at the articles below on house prices outside the City of Toronto.

The Freehold market experienced the typical after holiday resurgence in listings, more than doubling from 181 during the previous holiday filled week to 436 this past week.  The increase in listings was city-wide and should help provide options for those Buyers still hot to purchase in the spring market. Not surprisingly, following a week of fewer listings there were also substantially fewer sales last week.  The freehold sales in our study area topped out at exactly 100 with an even 70% going above their list price, down from a peak of 90% three weeks ago. Two interesting things of note last week were the steep decline of listings selling before their offer date with only around 10% selling in pre-emptive offers and the easing off of the percentage of sale price above the list price which seems to be settling in around 120% above the advertised price.

The condo market also witnessed a huge increase in listings adding nearly 200 more new listings than the previous week, going from 258 to 447. Like the freehold market condo sales also declined last week dropping from 224 to 151 this week, though the percentage of sales above their advertised price stayed relatively high with 70% of units selling above the list price. We think it is the condo market that will be most affected by the new rent controls and suspect there may be an uptick in new listings as the market moves forward.

Last week the real estate industry took a slight pause while several major religions celebrated their holiest of days all in the same week.  In real estate the coming of spring normally heralds the beginning of the annual game of trying to show houses while the city, in an apparently random manner, shuts down streets and neighbourhoods for prolonged construction projects – BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP – We interrupt this regularly scheduled Bosley Insight for breaking news from the Provincial Government. It seems that the powers that be at Queen’s Park will be making changes to ‘slow down’ the real estate market in the GTA.  We wish we could tell you what this means but, like you, we will need a week or so to see how it all shakes out.  Stay tuned next week when we can report back on how pending legislative changes will affect Toronto’s buyers and sellers.

Last week the Freehold market continued with steady sales just above 200 units. For the first time that we can recall there was not a single freehold property listed below the $700,000 price point in the central core and an astounding 85% of all listings sold over their advertised price last week.  While homes continue to sell above their list price we have seen a backing off of the amount above list that buyers are paying. Homes under $1,500,000 are selling for about 125% above list, down from highs of 135-140% above list a month or so ago. With most of the city celebrating Easter and Passover it was not a surprise to see a steep decline in listings last week, down from 383 in the first week of April to less than half that number last week with 181 new listings.

The condo market also witnessed a decline in listings last week from 386 to 258. Sales remained steady at 224 compared to 234 the previous week and condos continue to be snapped up above their list price at a rate close to the freehold market. Over the past two weeks condos have sold over their list price 75% of the time down slightly from the peak three weeks ago of 80% of all condos selling above their advertised price.  With all these new rules coming from our provincial government, including potential changes to rent control exemptions, the condo market will bear watching for the next few weeks.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.

The old adage says that if March comes in like a lion it leaves like a lamb.  If we consider the real estate market in the same vein, since March started with a roar we should have had a nice quiet end to the month. Alas, the real estate market respects no old wives tales as it wends its way through the spring. The last week of March capped off a month that saw prices jump an average 33% over March 2016.  Through the year, the talk has been the lack of listings, and we are happy to say that March seems to have bucked this trend.  The number of new listings in March 2017 is virtually identical for both the freehold and condo market as the number of new listings in March of 2016.  Of course we complained about not enough listings last year too so we expect to see high demand pushing prices in an upward direction for the foreseeable future.

The number of new listings in the freehold sector continued to increase over the previous week, jumping a significant 25% to 307.  Sales also saw a significant increase, up nearly 50% over the previous week.  The truly astounding number is that 90% of all freehold sales last week sold over their list price, including 100% of all properties listed under $700,000. As we enter April and May, the busiest months for real estate transactions, we expect more of the same.

The resale condo market seems to have settled into a nice groove.  New listings were virtually unchanged from the previous week at 321. What is interesting to note is that 75% of all new resale listings are in the downtown core, south of Bloor and between Dufferin and Yonge. Sales did ease off last week to 172 but the competition was as fierce as it has ever been with 80% of condos selling above their list price.

As the last of the children return to school from warm beaches and snowy hills we are reminded of our obligations as parents to teach our children to be kind to others. Under no circumstances do we permit bullying from our children to their peers. Of course, as adult Realtors we rarely take our own good advice and are constantly talking about Bully offers as the way to get a jump on hot listings before the set offer date.  Now don’t get me wrong, like all good adults when we are doing something so obviously wrong as being a Bully we take the mature step of re-naming the process to something much more socially acceptable, in this case the ‘Pre-emptive’ offer. So with all the talk of pre-emptive offers we decided to take a look at how common this really is and if it benefits the Seller to accept the ‘Pre-emptive’ offer.  In our sampling of freehold sales in 5 MLS districts (C01, C03, C10, C11, E01) we noted some interesting trends.  Pre-emptive offers are much more common downtown than uptown, with 25% of listings selling before their offer date south of Bloor and a mere 7% selling before their offer date once you go north of Eglinton. The other interesting fact is that the final sale price, as a percentage above the list price, was on average higher on offer night then when a Seller accepted a Pre-emptive offer. So while we remind our children not to be Bullies, we might also want to take the time to let our Seller’s know that the best strategy might be to ignore the ‘Bully’ when it comes their way.

In the Freehold market the number of new listings exploded last week while sales remained virtually unchanged from the week before.  New listings increased an astounding 100% compared to the previous week while sales increased a meager 5%.  While we are hopeful that the new listings will ease some of the pressure Buyers face on offer nights, we continue to believe that there is insufficient inventory for the obviously strong demand for freehold properties.  With a consistent 75% of all listings selling above their list price Buyers should keep a tight hold on the railing, the ride is not over yet.

Condos on the other hand continue to carve their own market, mostly in the downtown core.  There was also a significant increase in new available condos for sale but the inventory only increased 50% over the previous week while sales matched the increase of the freehold market at 5%. It is important to note that by far the majority of new condo listings and sales are happening in the central core with only 7% of condo sales occurring in the east or west parts of our research area.  Like the freehold market, condos have settled into a consistent 70% of sales occurring above the list price.

Excuse us if we seem a little distracted this month but we normally reserve our March Madness for that basketball tournament going on south of the border. Cinderella stories are all the rage when talking college basketball, but here in the Toronto market she can make it to the big event but never seems to catch the prince. Seeing your team get knocked out of the tournament can be maddening but at least you know that if they work hard and persevere they will be back next year. With competition in purchasing as strong as it has been all year, the real estate market is producing more losers than winners. And unlike the basketball teams heading home and thinking of next year, we worry Buyers will begin to take their ball home and call it quits.

With last week being the public school March Break we were not surprised to see both listings and sales in the freehold market down from the previous week. With all the families away for a well-deserved break it is common to see the market take a brief pause.  What didn’t take a pause was the bidding wars, with 75% of all homes selling above their list price.  Perhaps the amazing part of those sales is that when you look at sales under $1.5 million that number goes up to 87% and if you look only at those houses listed between $400,000-700,000 the number of homes sold above list hits a staggering 96%.

The condo market continues to differentiate itself from its freehold cousin and as always is less concerned with long weekends and family holidays. While sales were off marginally from the previous week, new listings surged with nearly 22% more units coming to market over the previous week. Where the condo market is not differing from the freehold market is in units selling above the asking price, with 68% of sales occurring above the list price.

While we always enjoy spending time with our families, after all we are a family company, we never like what happens before the Family Day long weekend. Or really any long weekend in fact. The thing is, Realtors never like to list right before a long weekend which inevitably means listings drop the week before the long weekend and that creates what we like to call the real estate inversion. Before the long weekend there are a lot of sales and hardly any new listings and right after the long weekend there are a lot of new listings but not as many sales.

Freehold listings followed this predictable pattern and are up 10% over the previous week yet remain historically low when looking at inventory over the past few years. Of course, the Spring market has sprung so we do expect to see the listing inventory climb as we proceed to the warmer months. While sales were down over the previous week they continue to outpace new listings. Perhaps a silver lining for last week was that the number of Freehold properties that sold in bidding wars eased off slightly from 77% to 61%.  Sorry, but we don’t expect that to be a trend moving forward.  Bidding wars are here to stay for the foreseeable future.

The condo market has always been a little different around the long weekends and bucked the pattern with a decline in listings (down 27%) and a decline in sales (down 18%). Bidding wars followed a similar decline to the freehold segment going from 71% to 63%.  Holding back offers and bidding wars are a newer experience for the condo market and we are confident that with some practice it will follow the same long weekend trends the freehold market observes. If you are a follower of the long weekend calendar method of buying and selling real estate you have just over two weeks until March Break.  Happy Buying and Selling.

Bosley Real Estate Ltd. is a full service boutique brokerage operating in Toronto, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Jordan and Port Hope, Ontario since 1928. We have four centrally located offices and over 250 sales representatives selling and leasing homes and condominiums in all the vibrant communities we work in. Our brand is well recognized internationally thanks to our unique affiliation with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. Our sales teams meet weekly to discuss market conditions, trending topics, and anecdotes that more accurately reflect the true temperature of the real estate market.